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Estimating Effects of the Minimum Wage in a Developing Country: A Density Discontinuity Design Approach

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new framework to identify the effects of the minimum wage on the joint distribution of sector and wages in a developing country. I show that under reasonable assumptions, cross-sectional data on the worker's wage and sector can identify the joint distribution of the latent counterparts of these variables; that is, the sector status and wage that would prevail in the absence of the minimum wage. I apply the method in the “PNAD”, a nationwide representative Brazilian cross-sectional dataset for the years 2001 to 2009. The results indicate that the size of the informal sector is increased by around 39% compared to what would prevail in the absence of the minimum wage, an effect attributable to (i) unemployment effects of the minimum wage on the formal sector, (ii) movements of workers from the formal to the informal sector as a response to the policy.

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  • Hugo Jales, 2015. "Estimating Effects of the Minimum Wage in a Developing Country: A Density Discontinuity Design Approach," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 184, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    • Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:184
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    1. Carlos Henrique Corseuil & Miguel Foguel & Marcos Hecksher, 2013. "Efeitos dos Pisos salariais Estaduais Sobre o Mercado de Trabalho: Uma Nova Abordagem Empírica," Discussion Papers 1887, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samutpradit, Saisawat, 2024. "Employment effects of minimum wages in a dual economy: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Jales, Hugo & Jiang, Boqian & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2023. "JUE Insight: Using the mode to test for selection in city size wage premia," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Gindling, T. H. & Ronconi, Lucas, 2023. "Minimum Wage Policy and Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12931, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Du, Pengcheng & Wang, Shuxun, 2020. "The effect of minimum wage on firm markup: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 241-250.
    5. David A. Green, 2014. "What Is a Minimum Wage For? Empirical Results and Theories of Justice," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 40(4), pages 293-314, December.
    6. Sebastian Fossati & Joseph Marchand, 2024. "First to $15: Alberta’s Minimum Wage Policy on Employment by Wages, Ages, and Places," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 77(1), pages 119-142, January.
    7. Jales, Hugo & Ma, Jun & Yu, Zhengfei, 2017. "Optimal bandwidth selection for local linear estimation of discontinuity in density," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 23-27.
    8. Pierre Brochu & David Green & James Townsend & Thomas Lemieux, 2023. "The minimum wages, turnover, and the shape of the wage distribution," IFS Working Papers W23/32, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Fossati, Sebastian & Marchand, Joseph, 2020. "First to $15: Alberta's Minimum Wage Policy on Employment by Wages, Ages, and Places," Working Papers 2020-15, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 27 Jul 2023.
    10. Bertanha, Marinho & McCallum, Andrew H. & Seegert, Nathan, 2023. "Better bunching, nicer notching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    11. Marinho Bertanha & Andrew H. McCallum & Alexis Payne & Nathan Seegert, 2022. "Bunching estimation of elasticities using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 22(3), pages 597-624, September.
    12. Manuel Fernández & Gabriela Serrano, 2022. "New Perspectives on Inequality in Latin America," Documentos CEDE 20295, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Carlo Lombardo & Lucía Ramírez Leira & Leonardo Gasparini, 2024. "Does the Minimum Wage Affect Wage Inequality? A Study for the Six Largest Latin American Economies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(4), pages 494-510, April.
    14. Katzkowicz, Sharon & Pedetti, Gabriela & Querejeta, Martina & Bergolo, Marcelo, 2021. "Low-skilled workers and the effects of minimum wage in a developing country: Evidence based on a density-discontinuity approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Darius Daniel Martin, 2021. "The Minimum Wage in a Roy Model with Monopsony," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 358-381, December.
    16. Stijn Broecke & Alessia Forti & Marieke Vandeweyer, 2017. "The effect of minimum wages on employment in emerging economies: a survey and meta-analysis," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 366-391, July.
    17. Du, Pengcheng & Zheng, Yi & Wang, Shuxun, 2022. "The minimum wage and the financialization of firms: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Saraçoğlu, Dürdane Şirin, 2020. "Do labour market policies reduce the informal economy more effectively than enforcement and deterrence?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 679-698.
    19. Sharon Katzkowicz & Gabriela Pedetti & Martina Querejeta & Marcelo Bérgolo, 2019. "Low-Skilled Workers and the Effects of Minimum Wage: New Evidence Based on a Density-Discontinuity Approach," Working Papers PMMA 2019-10, PEP-PMMA.
    20. Işık Enes & Orhangazi Özgür & Tekgüç Hasan, 2020. "Heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on labor market outcomes: A case study from Turkey," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-41, March.
    21. Howell, Anthony, 2020. "Minimum wage impacts on Han-minority Workers’ wage distribution and inequality in urban china," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    22. Marcelo Castro & Cesar Tirso, 2023. "The impacts of the age of majority on the exposure to violent crimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 983-1023, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum Wage; Informality; Unemployment; Density Discontinuity Design; Wage Inequality; Labor Tax Revenues; Formal Sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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