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The Marginal Propensity to Consume During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Dzung Bui

    (University of Marburg)

  • Lena Draeger

    (Leibniz University of Hannover)

  • Bernd Hayo

    (University of Marburg)

  • Giang Nghiem

    (Leibniz University of Hannover)

Abstract

In evaluating surveys conducted in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that the marginal propensity to consume is significantly larger for positive than for negative income shocks. This result contradicts a prediction from the lifecycle permanent income model with borrowing constraints as well as empirical evidence from industrialized countries. However, our finding is consistent with Kahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory, according to which the combination of income uncertainty and loss aversion can induce households to react more strongly to positive than to negative shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dzung Bui & Lena Draeger & Bernd Hayo & Giang Nghiem, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202207, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202207
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jappelli, Tullio & Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 15525, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bui, Dzung & Dräger, Lena & Hayo, Bernd & Nghiem, Giang, 2022. "The effects of fiscal policy on households during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Bowman, David & Minehart, Deborah & Rabin, Matthew, 1999. "Loss aversion in a consumption-savings model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 155-178, February.
    4. Andreas Fuster & Greg Kaplan & Basit Zafar, 2021. "What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans [The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1760-1795.
    5. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2020. "How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?," Working Papers 2020-109, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    7. Thomas Crossley & Paul Fisher & Peter Levell & Hamish Low, 2020. "MPCs through COVID: spending, saving and private transfers," IFS Working Papers W20/35, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "Asymmetric Consumption Effects of Transitory Income Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2322-2341.
    9. Katharina Drescher & Pirmin Fessler & Peter Lindner, 2020. "Helicopter Money in Europe: New Evidence on the Marginal Propensity to Consume across European Households (Katharina Drescher, Pirmin Fessler, Peter Lindner)," Working Papers 231, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marginal propensity to consume (MPC); Unanticipated income shocks; COVID-19; Thailand; Vietnam.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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