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Estimating the monetary policy interest-rate-to-performance sensitivity of the European banking sector at the zero lower bound

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg)

  • Kai Henseler

    (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg)

  • Marc Steffen Rapp

    (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg)

Abstract

Using an event-study design, we investigate monetary policy interest-rate-to-performance sensitivity of the European banking sector over the 07/2012–06/2017 period when interest rates were (close to) zero. We apply the Wordscores approach to introductory statements of ECB's Governing Council press conferences to estimate a ‘shadow prime rate’. Based on short-run intraday event windows, we find shadow prime rate changes positively affect changes in the EURO-STOXX-Banks Future. Our findings add to the recent evidence documenting that banks benefit from increasing interest rate levels in a low-interest-rate environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Kai Henseler & Marc Steffen Rapp, 2019. "Estimating the monetary policy interest-rate-to-performance sensitivity of the European banking sector at the zero lower bound," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201902, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201902
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    File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/paper_2019/02-2019_hayo.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Coleman, Nicholas & Donnelly, Michael, 2018. "“Low-For-Long” interest rates and banks’ interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 1-16.
    2. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. "The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-1153, September.
    3. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2010. "An Assessment of the Consistency of ECB Communication using Wordscores," DNB Working Papers 259, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. English, William B. & Van den Heuvel, Skander J. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2018. "Interest rate risk and bank equity valuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 80-97.
    5. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    6. Ampudia, Miguel & Heuvel, Skander Van den, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low interest rates," Working Paper Series 2199, European Central Bank.
    7. Laver, Michael & Benoit, Kenneth & Garry, John, 2003. "Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using Words as Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 311-331, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Maik Dehnert, 2020. "Sustaining the current or pursuing the new: incumbent digital transformation strategies in the financial service industry," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(3), pages 1071-1113, November.
    2. Hayo, Bernd & Henseler, Kai & Steffen Rapp, Marc & Zahner, Johannes, 2022. "Complexity of ECB communication and financial market trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB; central bank communication; banking sector; interest rate sensitivity; textual analysis; Wordscores;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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