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Can Monetary Policy Affect Economic Activity under Surplus Liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia

Author

Listed:
  • Branimir Jovanovic

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Aneta Krstevska

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

  • Neda Popovska-Kamnar

    (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)

Abstract

Surplus liquidity in the banking system changes the monetary transmission mechanism, reducing the effectiveness of the traditional instrument, the interest rate. In this paper we examine the real effects of several monetary-policy instruments in Macedonia, an economy characterized by surplus liquidity. We use regime-switching Vector Auto regressions and track the responses of different economic activity indicators to changes in the monetary policy instruments. Our findings suggest that the interest rate channel is weakly effective in Macedonia. The responses to the other instruments are not very sizeable, either, but are significant. This implies that monetary policy can affect economic activity through the reserve requirement and the offered amount of central bank bills. These findings have implications for both the analysis and the conduct of monetary policy in economies with surplus liquidity. Regarding analysis, the implication is that the traditional approach, which considers only the role of the interest rate, is likely to lead to wrong conclusions. Regarding conduct, the implication is that monetary authorities, besides on the price impact of the interest rate, should additionally rely on the reserve requirement and other available instruments producing volume impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Branimir Jovanovic & Aneta Krstevska & Neda Popovska-Kamnar, 2015. "Can Monetary Policy Affect Economic Activity under Surplus Liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-03, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    • Handle: RePEc:mae:wpaper:2015-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2013/027, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2006/295, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Favero, Carlo A., 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mr. Kei Kawakami & Rafael Romeu, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Transmission in Stochastic Debt Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2011/107, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    2. Milan Eliskovski, 2018. "Investigating credit transmission mechanism in the Republic of Macedonia: evidence from Vector Error Correction Model," Working Papers 2018-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    3. Albulenë Kastrati, 2022. "Paradox of Excess Liquidity in European Emerging and Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(1), pages 79-114.
    4. Tanja Jakimova & Milan Eliskovski & Artina Bedzeti Baftijari, 2022. "Households’ euroization in the Republic of North Macedonia: Is it close or far from the optimal levels?," Working Papers 2022-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; surplus liquidity; excess liquidity; VAR; Macedonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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