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Impact of the Euro Adoption on the Economy of Latvia

Author

Listed:
  • Martins Bitans

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Egils Kauzens

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

In the past decade, Latvia's macroeconomic structure and the financial system have undergone momentous and radical changes, and the experience gained so far supports the assumption that the economy has been able to adjust effectively to changes in external environment. The calculations based on the gravity model analysis demonstrate that over longer horizons Latvia's GDP might be up to 19% higher than under a hypothetical scenario of Latvia preserving its national currency. Several indicators of the national structural development (structural changes of GDP sectors, structure of foreign trade broken down by trade partner and main commodity group, etc.) and the analysis of cyclical economic volatility show that in terms of real convergence Latvia often differs substantially from large euro area countries and only on few occasions Latvia's respective indicators display close similarity to the indicators of countries known as the periphery. It does not necessarily imply that along with the euro adoption the impact and periodicity of asymmetric shocks in Latvia are going to increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins Bitans & Egils Kauzens, 2004. "Impact of the Euro Adoption on the Economy of Latvia," Working Papers 2004/02, Latvijas Banka.
    • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200402
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    5. Mr. Michael Frenkel & Mr. Christiane Nickel, 2002. "How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2002/222, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies: Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2000/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksejs Melihovs & Igors Kasjanovs, 2011. "The Convergence Processes in Europe and Latvia," Discussion Papers 2011/01, Latvijas Banka.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area enlargement; euro adoption; convergence; Maastricht; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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