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Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients With the VC Program

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  • Schlicht, Ekkehart

Abstract

The estimation of models with time-varying coefficients is usually performed by Kalman-Bucy filtering. The two-sided filter proposed by Schlicht (1988) is statistically and computationally superior to the one-sided Kalman-Bucy filter. This paper describes the estimation procedure and the program package that implements the two-sided filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2003. "Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients With the VC Program," Discussion Papers in Economics 34, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:34
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    File URL: https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34/1/schlicht_vc-info.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1997. "The moving equilibrium theorem again," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 271-278, April.
    2. Schlicht, Ekkehart, . "Approximation by Moving Equilibrium," Chapters in Economics,, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Schlicht, Ekkehart, . "Die Methode der Gleichgewichtsbewegung als Approximationsverfahren," Chapters in Economics,, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christos Chrysanthakopoulos & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2024. "Tax policy cyclicality and financial development," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 48-57.
    2. Cesar M. Rodriguez, 2014. "Financial development, fiscal policy and volatility: Their effects on growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 223-266, March.
    3. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2024. "Drivers of fiscal sustainability: A time-varying analysis for Portugal," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "Monetary policy surprises shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2023/0284, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    6. Afonso, António & Carvalho, Francisco Tiago, 2022. "Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy: The case of the Euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "Economic volatility and sovereign yields’ determinants: a time-varying approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 427-451, February.
    8. António Afonso & José Alves & Olegs Matvejevs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and the Role of Inflation," Working Papers REM 2023/0303, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles, 2018. "Determinants and Effects of Fiscal Counter-Cyclicality," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 137-151, April.
    10. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho, 2023. "Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability," Working Papers REM 2023/0255, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "The volatility impact of social expenditure’s cyclicality in advanced economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 26-40.
    12. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2022. "Fiscal Sustainability, Fiscal Reactions, Pitfalls and Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 9635, CESifo.
    14. João T. Jalles, 2020. "Explaining Africa's public consumption procyclicality: Revisiting old evidence," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 297-323, August.
    15. Jalles, João Tovar, 2018. "Fiscal rules and fiscal counter-cyclicality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 159-162.
    16. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2023. "Twin deficits through the looking glass: time-varying analysis in the Euro area," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2087-2110, August.
    17. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles & Prakash Loungani, 2020. "On the Determinants of the Okun’s Law: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 661-700, December.
    18. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "Fiscal rules and tax policy cyclicality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    19. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    20. António Afonso & Francisco Tiago Carvalho, 2021. "Euro area time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Papers REM 2021/0202, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    21. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Surprises and Fiscal Sustainability Regimes in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 10558, CESifo.
    22. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 605-630, November.
    23. Jalles, João Tovar, 2021. "Dynamics of government spending cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 411-427.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filtering; Kalman-Bucy; random walk; time-varying coefficients; adaptive estimation; time-series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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