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The Relationship between Technical Progress and Employment: A Comment on Autor and Salomons

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Felipe
  • Donna Faye Bajaro
  • Gemma Estrada
  • John McCombie

Abstract

We show that Autor and Salomons' (2017, 2018) analysis of the impact of technical progress on employment growth is problematic. When they use labor productivity growth as a proxy for technical progress, their regressions are quasi-accounting identities that omit one variable of the identity. Consequently, the coefficient of labor productivity growth suffers from omitted-variable bias, where the omitted variable is known. The use of total factor productivity (TFP) growth as a proxy for technical progress does not solve the problem. Contrary to what the profession has argued for decades, we show that this variable is not a measure of technical progress. This is because TFP growth derived residually from a production function, together with the conditions for producer equilibrium, can also be derived from an accounting identity without any assumption. We interpret TFP growth as a measure of distributional changes. This identity also indicates that Autor and Salomons' estimates of TFP growth’s impact on employment growth are biased due to the omission of the other variables in the identity. Overall, we conclude that their work does not shed light on the question they address.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Felipe & Donna Faye Bajaro & Gemma Estrada & John McCombie, 2020. "The Relationship between Technical Progress and Employment: A Comment on Autor and Salomons," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_946, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_946
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 24871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jesus Felipe & John McCombie, 2020. "The illusions of calculating total factor productivity and testing growth models: from Cobb-Douglas to Solow and Romer," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 470-513, July.
    3. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    4. Jesus Felipe & Franklin M. Fisher, 2003. "Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists should Know," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 208-262, May.
    5. Charles R. Hulten, 2009. "Growth Accounting," NBER Working Papers 15341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Nadiri, M Ishaq, 1970. "Some Approaches to the Theory and Measurement of Total Factor Productivity: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 1137-1177, December.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment; Labor Productivity; Technical Progress; Total Factor Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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