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Investigating Economic Trends And Cycles

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  • D.S.G. Pollock

Abstract

Methods are described for extracting the trend from an economic data sequence and for isolating the cycles that surround it. The latter often consist of a business cycle of variable duration and a perennial seasonal cycle. There is no evident point in the frequency spectrum where the trend ends and the business cycle begins. Therefore, unless it can be represented by a simple analytic function, such as an exponential growth path, there is bound to be a degree of arbitrariness in the definition of the trend. The business cycle, however defined, is liable to have an upper limit to its frequency range that falls short of the Nyquist frequency, which is the maximum observable frequency in sampled data. This must be taken into account in fitting an ARMA model to the detrended data.

Suggested Citation

  • D.S.G. Pollock, 2007. "Investigating Economic Trends And Cycles," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Apr 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:07/17
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    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp07-17.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. S. G. Pollock, 2002. "A review of TSW: the Windows version of the TRAMO-SEATS program," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 291-299.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Real GDP per capita since 1870," MPRA Paper 39021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Willi Leibfritz & Gebhard Flaig, 2013. "Economic Growth in Africa: Comparing Recent Improvements with the "lost 1980s and early 1990s" and Estimating New Growth Trends," CESifo Working Paper Series 4215, CESifo.
    3. Pollock Stephen D.S.G., 2009. "Statistical Fourier Analysis: Clarifications and Interpretations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-49, April.
    4. W. A. Wan Omar & Fauzi Hussin & Asan Ali G. H., 2014. "The Trend Analysis of Islamization in Malaysia Using Islamization Index as Indicator," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(10), pages 1298-1313, October.
    5. Blöchl, Andreas, 2014. "Trend Estimation with Penalized Splines as Mixed Models for Series with Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers in Economics 18446, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. D.S.G. Pollock, 2009. "IDEOLOG: A Program for Filtering Econometric Data -- A Synopsis of Alternative Methods," EHUCHAPS, in: Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 15-44, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    7. D.S.G. Pollock, 2018. "The Manual for IDEOLOG.PAS. A Program for Filtering Econometric Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 19/09, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    8. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Band spectral estimation for signal extraction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 54-69, January.

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