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State Dependence and Causal Feedback of Poverty and Fertility in Ethiopia

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  • Arnstein Aassve
  • Abbi M. Kedir
  • Habtu Tadesse Woldegebriel

Abstract

The paper implements simultaneous random effect models as a means to analyse causality issues related to poverty and fertility in Ethiopia, a country which is plagued by high and persistent poverty and very high fertility rates in rural areas. Using longitudinal data from both urban and rural areas of Ethiopia, we analyse the relationship between childbearing and poverty. In addition to identifying state dependence in poverty and fertility, we investigate to what extent fertility act as a feedback mechanism leading to higher poverty and vice versa. We find that poverty itself has little effect on fertility, whereas there is evidence of state dependence in poverty and important feedback from fertility on future poverty. Not unexpected, we find substantial differences between rural and urban areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnstein Aassve & Abbi M. Kedir & Habtu Tadesse Woldegebriel, 2006. "State Dependence and Causal Feedback of Poverty and Fertility in Ethiopia," Discussion Papers in Economics 06/7, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:06/7
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    Cited by:

    1. Baris Ucar & Gianni Betti, 2016. "The effect of a newborn on household poverty: a multi-indicator analysis," Department of Economics University of Siena 742, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    2. FAYE Ousmane & ISLAM Nizamul & ZULU Eliya, 2011. "Poverty dynamics in Nairobi's slums: testing for true state dependence and heterogeneity effects," LISER Working Paper Series 2011-56, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    3. Dalomi Bahan & Latif Dramani, 2019. "Socioeconomic Status and Fertility Decline in Burkina Faso, 2003-2015," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 56-70, March.

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