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A Structured VAR under Changing Monetary Policy

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  • Katarina Juselius

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

The empirical analysis is mainly concerned with the aggregate demand for money relation as part of a small macroeconomic system. Using the theory of cointegrated VAR models for I(2) data the long-run relationships in the data are first investigated, and the ML-estimates of the corresponding cointegration vectors and common trends are discussed and given an economic interpretation of steady-state relations and driving forces. The sample period includes an important regime shift at 1983 when most of the previous controls on the capital movements were lifted. Identifying restrictions are imposed both on the long-run and the short-run structure. The final model describes the dynamic adjustment to short-run changes of the process, to deviations from long-run steady-states, and to several political interventions. it has stable parameters, good statistical properties, and provides some new insights about the effects of capital liberalization on the determination of money, income, prices, and interest rates in a small open economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius, 1996. "A Structured VAR under Changing Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 96-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9602
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio E. Noriega & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulà ria & School of Economics, University of Guanajuato, 2006. "Spurious regression and econometric trends," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 151, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 439-444, June.
    3. Noriega Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
    4. Frank Butter & Simon Dijken, 1997. "The Information Contents of Aggregated Money Demand in the EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 233-244, July.
    5. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    6. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas P., 2000. "Wage Setting, Taxes, and Demand for Labor in Greece: A Multivariate Analysis of Cointegrating Relationships," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 171-195, March.
    7. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
    8. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2002. "An I(2) Cointegration Analysis of Price and Quantity Formation in Danish Manufactured Exports," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 449-472, December.

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