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The Equity Risk Premium and the Required Share Returns in a Tobin’s q Model

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  • Jakob B. Madsen

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

Based on the Tobin’s q principle this paper shows that earnings per unit of capital and the output capital ratio are excellent measures of the required share returns because they are only temporarily affected by earnings shocks but are driven permanently by changes in required share returns. Evidence for the US over the period from 1889 to 2002 suggests that real required share returns and the equity risk premium climbed to extraordinarily high levels from the late 1930, to the end of the 1940s, and have since declined. The risk premium is currently somewhere between 4 and 6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "The Equity Risk Premium and the Required Share Returns in a Tobin’s q Model," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:03-10
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    File URL: http://web.econ.ku.dk/epru/files/wp/wp-03-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expected share returns; equity risk premium; Tobin’s q; share valuation; macroeconomic factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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