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International business cycles

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Abstract

This paper first discusses concepts, definitions and theoretical explanations for international business cycles. This is followed by an overview of previous empirical studies. We then argue that for ex post analyses the output gap is a univariate quantification of the business cycle that is comparable across space and time and readily available (or rather computable from GFP series), which recommends its use for our purposes. Based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly output gap series in a panel of 40 countries from 1960q1 to 2011q3, we then test a number of hypotheses regarding the imbeddedness of the Swiss economy into international business cycles and possible changes thereof over the recent years. The results identify layers of international business cycles, where the integration of Switzerland is pronounced. Moreover it markedly deepened after 1994. A case for Switzerland being 'special' can hence not be made in terms of its recent business cycle pattern.

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  • Michael Graff, 2011. "International business cycles," KOF Working papers 11-291, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:11-291
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-006742181
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil & Stéphane Hallegatte & Patrice Dumas, 2015. "The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(1), pages 63-81.
    2. Andreas Brunhart, 2013. "Der Klein(st)staat Liechtenstein und seine grossen Nachbarländer: Eine wachstums- und konjunkturanalytische Gegenüberstellung," Arbeitspapiere 44, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    3. Andreas Brunhart, 2015. "The Swiss Business Cycle and the Lead of Small Neighbor Liechtenstein," Arbeitspapiere 51, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    4. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 25-48, September.
    5. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Post-Print hal-01701122, HAL.
    6. Andreas Brunhart, 2017. "Are Microstates Necessarily Led by Their Bigger Neighbors’ Business Cycle? The Case of Liechtenstein and Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, May.

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