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Sustainability of Public Debt: Evidence from Pre-World War II Japan

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  • Masato Shizume

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

Japan defaulted on its public debts only once throughout its modern history, after World War II (WWII). How did Japan lose its ability to sustain its public debts? This paper explores the sustainability of public debts in Japan before and during WWII. First, this paper reviews the brief history of pre-WWII public finance in Japan with reference to some narrative evidence, data, and previous works. Second, this paper conducts three stages of econometric analyses. It tests Ricardian neutrality of public debt. It tests the dynamic efficiency of Japanese economy, and it conducts Bohn's tests for the relationship between public debt and primary fiscal balance. The tests indicate that Japanese public debts were sustainable until 1931, and unsustainable in and after 1932. Third, this paper interprets the results of quantitative analyses with narrative modes of analysis. During the 1930s, Japan lost its fiscal discipline because of the military's effective veto over budgetary processes and because of the absence of pressure for sound fiscal policy from international financial markets.Length: 35 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Masato Shizume, 2007. "Sustainability of Public Debt: Evidence from Pre-World War II Japan," Discussion Paper Series 201, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

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