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BREXIT and Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues and New Empirical Findings

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  • Paul J. J. Welfens

    (European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW), Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, University of Wuppertal, D-42119 Wuppertal, Germany
    AICGS/ John Hopkins University, Washington, D.C. 20036, USA)

  • Fabian J. Baier

    (European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW), Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, University of Wuppertal, D-42119 Wuppertal, Germany)

Abstract

This contribution takes a new look at the gravity equation model in relation to foreign direct investment (FDI) of leading industrialized countries which presents a useful basis for assessing certain potential impacts arising from BREXIT—the envisaged leaving of the EU by the United Kingdom. The gravity equation estimated subsequently allows one to consider the case of BREXIT and the broader role of EU membership and other variables. Looking at the period from 1985 to 2012 for a dataset which contains 34 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) dyadic fixed estimations take into account a broad set of approaches and variables. Besides the traditional variables of the EU/EU single-market membership of the source country and of the host country, we further consider the role of trade openness as well as corporate tax rates and the ratio of inward FDI stock to total capital stock. The analysis shows that trade openness is a variable which can be largely replaced by the inward FDI stock/capital stock ratio so that gravity FDI modeling with a strong emphasis on trade openness is likely to overstate the role of trade and to understate the role of relative FDI accumulation effects. The implication for BREXIT analysis is that the UK will face three impulses for FDI inflows: (1) leaving the EU single market will strongly reduce FDI inflows; (2) if foreign ownership in UK capital stock should strongly increase in the run-up to the BREXIT year 2019, part of the dampening effects of leaving the EU will be mitigated by the increase of the FDI stock/capital stock ratio, which in turn is likely to reflect a Froot–Stein effect related to real pound depreciation for 2016–2018; (3) to the extent that the UK government will want to reinforce output growth through higher FDI inflows, a reduction of corporate taxation could generate high effects but could also stimulate a downward international corporate tax reduction game.

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  • Paul J. J. Welfens & Fabian J. Baier, 2018. "BREXIT and Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues and New Empirical Findings," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:46-:d:143042
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabian J. Baier, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 6(1), pages 45-72, October.
    2. Welfens Paul J.J. & Baier Fabian & Kadiric Samir & Korus Arthur & Xiong Tian, 2019. "EU28 Capital Market Perspectives of a Hard BREXIT: Theory, Empirical Findings and Policy Options," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Kaan Celebi, 2021. "Quo Vadis, Britain? – Implications of the Brexit process on the UK’s real economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 267-307, May.
    4. Tobias Zander, 2020. "Does corruption matter for FDI flows in the OECD? A gravity analysis," EIIW Discussion paper disbei280, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: Eurozone, EU, US and Chinese Perspectives," EIIW Discussion paper disbei270, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    6. Daniel Bembennek & Michael Frenkel, 2024. "An empirical study of the immediate effect of the brexit referendum on greenfield foreign direct investment in the uk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 57-63.
    7. Tobias Zander, 2021. "Does corruption matter for FDI flows in the OECD? A gravity analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 347-377, May.
    8. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT, Corona Dynamics, EU Crisis and Declining Multilateralism," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 563-634, July.
    9. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Corona World Recession and Health System Crisis: Shocks Not Understood So Far," EIIW Discussion paper disbei273, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    10. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "The international financial implications of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 37-50, March.
    11. Fabian J. Baier, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," EIIW Discussion paper disbei261, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    12. Fabian J. Baier & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "The UK’s banking FDI flows and Total British FDI: a dynamic BREXIT analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 193-213, March.
    13. Nigel Driffield & Irina Surdu & Xiaocan Yuan, 2024. "Country-level dynamic capabilities and inward FDI: a framework on future policy adaptations applied to post-Brexit UK," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(3), pages 276-294, September.
    14. Cong Wang, 2024. "Counterfactual and Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Instrumented Principal Component Analysis," Papers 2408.09271, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    15. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    16. Tobias Zander, 2023. "FDI Flows and the Effects of the Shadow Economy: Evidence from Gravity Modelling," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 9(4), pages 429-454, October.
    17. Andre Jungmittag & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "EU-US trade post-trump perspectives: TTIP aspects related to foreign direct investment and innovation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 259-294, February.
    18. Florian Becker-Ritterspach & Maria L. Allen & Knut Lange & Matthew M. C. Allen, . "Home-country measures to support outward foreign direct investment: variation and consequences," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    19. Paul J. J. Welfens & Tian Xiong, 2019. "BREXIT perspectives: financial market dynamics, welfare aspects and problems from slower growth," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 215-265, March.
    20. Bettina Meinhart, "undated". "How EU membership affects foreign direct investment: Differences between EU15 and CEE countries," FIW Working Paper series 197, FIW.
    21. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev & Sarhad Hamza, 2022. "Between the Eurozone crisis and the Brexit: the decade of British outward FDI into Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1159-1192, September.

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