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Long-term Effects of Famine on Life Expectancy: A Re-analysis of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-1868

Author

Listed:
  • Doblhammer, Gabriele

    (University of Rostock)

  • van den Berg, Gerard J.

    (University of Groningen)

  • Lumey, Lambert H.

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Famines are extreme cases of environmental stress, and have been used by a series of studies to explore the long-term consequences of the fetal or childhood environment. Results are inconsistent and do not support negative long-term effects on mortality. The authors test the hypothesis that selection during famine changes the frailty distributions of cohorts and may hide negative long-term effects. They use death counts from age 60+ from the Human Mortality Data Base for the birth cohorts 1850-1854, 1855-1859, 1860-1865, 1866-1868, 1869-1874, 1875-1879, 1880-1884 and 1885-1889 to explore the effect of being born during the Great Finnish Famine 1866-1868. Swedish cohorts without famine exposure are analysed as a control group. Cohorts born in Finland during the Great Finnish Famine are highly heterogeneous in their distribution of deaths after age 60. By contrast, cohorts born in the years immediately after the famine are particularly homogeneous. Accounting for these differences results into a lower remaining life expectancy at age 60 for cohorts born during the famine. Statistically, long-term effects of famine on mortality become only visible when changes in the frailty distribution of cohorts are explicitly considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Doblhammer, Gabriele & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Lumey, Lambert H., 2011. "Long-term Effects of Famine on Life Expectancy: A Re-analysis of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-1868," IZA Discussion Papers 5534, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5534
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    2. Gerard J. van den Berg & Maarten Lindeboom & France Portrait, 2006. "Economic Conditions Early in Life and Individual Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 290-302, March.
    3. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2007. "Making Famine History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 5-38, March.
    4. van den Berg, Gerard J. & Doblhammer, Gabriele & Christensen, Kaare, 2009. "Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(9), pages 1591-1598, May.
    5. Lindeboom, Maarten & Portrait, France & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2010. "Long-run effects on longevity of a nutritional shock early in life: The Dutch Potato famine of 1846-1847," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 617-629, September.
    6. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Saarela & Fjalar Finnäs, 2012. "Long-term Mortality of War Cohorts: The Case of Finland," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Manuel Flores & Adriaan Kalwij, 2014. "The associations between early life circumstances and later life health and employment in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1251-1282, December.
    3. Virginia Zarulli, 2012. "Mortality shocks and the human rate of aging," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-019, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Shabnam, Nourin & Guven, Cahit & Ulubasoglu, Mehmet, 2021. "Lack of Food Access and Double Catastrophe in Early Life: Lessons from the 1974–1975 Bangladesh Famine," MPRA Paper 109653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Grönqvist, Erik & Norén, Anna & Sjögren, Anna & Svaleryd, Helena, 2016. "Sober mom, healthy baby? Effects of brief alcohol interventions in Swedish maternity care," Working Paper Series 2016:16, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debilitation; selection; old-age mortality; early life circumstances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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