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Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896–2000

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  • Campos, Nauro F.

    (University College London)

  • Karanasos, Menelaos G.

    (Brunel University)

Abstract

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show that while assassinations and strikes (what we call “informal” political instability) have a direct negative effect on economic growth, “formal” political instability (constitutional and legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that while the effects of “formal” instability are stronger in the long-run, those of “informal” instability are stronger in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G., 2007. "Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896–2000," IZA Discussion Papers 3087, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    2. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 183-190, December.
    4. Simplice A, Asongu, 2011. "Political crises and risk of financial contagion in developing countries: Evidence from Africa," MPRA Paper 37459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
    6. repec:awi:wpaper:0472 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Doré, Natalia I. & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2023. "The role of human capital, structural change, and institutional quality on Brazil's economic growth over the last two hundred years (1822–2019)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Nauro F. Campos & Menelaos G. Karanasos & Bin Tan, 2016. "From Riches to Rags, and Back? Institutional Change, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Argentina since 1890," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 206-223, February.
    10. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
    11. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni & Fabrizio Valenti, 2016. "Volatility and Growth with Recursive Preferences," CEIS Research Paper 387, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jun 2016.
    12. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2018. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 598-615.
    13. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896–2000)," IZA Discussion Papers 3752, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. repec:jle:journl:199 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chen Haibo & Emmanuel Kwaku Manu & Mary Somuah, 2023. "Examining Finance-Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence From the Sub-Regional Economies of Africa," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.
    16. Jacek Rothert, 2015. "Monitoring, moral hazard, and turnover," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 355-374, February.
    17. Fateh Habibi & Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Iran and GCC," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 601-620, Summer.
    18. IRSHAD Hira, 2017. "Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns And Stock Market Volatility," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 70-99, August.
    19. Zeeshan, Muhammad & han, Jiabin & Rehman, Alam & Ullah, Irfan & Hussain, Arif & Alam Afridi, Fakhr E., 2022. "Exploring symmetric and asymmetric nexus between corruption, political instability, natural resources and economic growth in the context of Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2020. "The impact of political instability on economic growth: the case of Guyana," MPRA Paper 103145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    22. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "On quantitative easing and high frequency exchange rate dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 110-125.
    23. RAMDE, Fousseni, 2015. "Institution, investissements et croissance dans l’UEMOA: une approche panel VAR [Institution, investments and growth in WAEMU: a panel VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 82417, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2017.
    24. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    power-ARCH; political instability; volatility; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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