IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp17572.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gravity Predictions of International Migration Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • López Molina, Gonzalo

    (Analistas Financieros Internacionales)

Abstract

What is the future of international migration flows? The growing availability of bilateral international migration data has resulted in an improved understanding of the determinants of migration flows through the estimation of theory-based gravity models. However, the use of these models as a prediction tool has remained a mostly unexplored research area. This paper estimates simple gravity models of bilateral migration flows for the whole world and projects these models into the future. Our results confirm a limited role for economic factors and a large one for demographic ones, in line with the literature. As a novel contribution, we show that estimates based on net flows are substantially lower than those based on gross flows. The reason is that network effects are historically more correlated with gross than with net flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús & López Molina, Gonzalo, 2024. "Gravity Predictions of International Migration Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 17572, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17572
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp17572.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thu Hien Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2021. "Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 417-449, May.
    2. Robert M. Beyer & Jacob Schewe & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2022. "Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Lucas Kluge & Samir KC & Dilek Yildiz & Guy Abel & Jacob Schewe & Orlando Olaya-Bucaro, 2024. "A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(11), pages 323-376.
    4. Andreas Backhaus & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Chris Muris, 2015. "Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anqi Xu, 2023. "Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Inter-county Migration in California: A Multilevel Gravity Model Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-33, June.
    2. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hassan F. Gholipour & Mostafa Javadian, 2023. "Air pollution and internal migration: evidence from an Iranian household survey," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 223-247, January.
    4. Wesselbaum Dennis, 2017. "Socioeconomic Driving Forces of International Migration," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Guy Abel & Michael Brottrager & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Raya Muttarak, 2018. "Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp272, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    7. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    8. Michael Brottrager & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Dominic Kniveton & Saleem H. Ali, 2023. "Natural resources modulate the nexus between environmental shocks and human mobility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Milusheva, Sveta & Reichert, Arndt R. & Reitmann, Ann-Kristin, 2024. "Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Michael P. Cameron, 2017. "Climate Change, Internal Migration and the Future Spatial Distribution of Population: A Case Study of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/03, University of Waikato.
    11. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    12. Oliva, Paulina, 2024. "Migration and the environment: A look across perspectives," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    13. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Hongyan & Huang, Xiang & Sun, Di & Song, Zilong, 2024. "Returning from overseas: STEMs migration and corporate digitalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. de Bruin, Sophie & Hoch, Jannis & de Bruijn, Jens & Hermans, Kathleen & Maharjan, Amina & Kummu, Matti & van Vliet, Jasper, 2024. "Scenario projections of South Asian migration patterns amidst environmental and socioeconomic change," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88, pages 1-12.
    15. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Helbling, Marc & Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel & Mistry, Malcolm & Schaub, Max, 2021. "Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 169(1-2), pages 1-1.
    17. Di Falco, Salvatore & Kis, Anna B. & Viarengo, Martina, 2022. "Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 15084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Salvatore Di Falco & Anna B. Kis & Martina Viarengo, 2022. "Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 9582, CESifo.
    19. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    20. Richa Richa & Ilan Noy & Subir Sen, 2024. "Extreme Weather and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Working Paper Series 10919, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international migration; prediction; gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17572. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.