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Biological Age and Predicting Future Health Care Utilisation

Author

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  • Davillas, Apostolos

    (University of Macedonia)

  • Jones, Andrew M.

    (University of York)

Abstract

We explore the role of epigenetic biological age in predicting subsequent health care utilisation. We use longitudinal data from the UK Understanding Society panel, capitalizing on the availability of baseline epigenetic biological age measures along with data on general practitioner (GP) consultations, outpatient (OP) visits, and hospital inpatient (IP) care collected 5-12 years from baseline. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses and accounting for participants' pre-existing health conditions, baseline biological underlying health, and socio-economic predictors we find that biological age predicts future GP consultations and IP care, while chronological rather than biological age matters for future OP visits. Post-selection prediction analysis and Shapley-Shorrocks decompositions, comparing our preferred prediction models to models that replace biological age with chronological age, suggest that biological ageing has a stronger role in the models predicting future IP care as opposed to "gatekeeping" GP consultations.

Suggested Citation

  • Davillas, Apostolos & Jones, Andrew M., 2024. "Biological Age and Predicting Future Health Care Utilisation," IZA Discussion Papers 17159, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17159
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    epigenetics; biological age; health care utilisation; red herring hypothesis; LASSO; supervised machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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