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Temperature and Fertility: Evidence from Spanish Register Data

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  • Keivabu, Risto Conte

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Cozzani, Marco

    (University of Florence)

  • Wilde, Joshua

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

In this paper, we combine administrative data for continental Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data to identify the effect of temperature on fertility. We demonstrate that warm (25-30°C) and hot days (>30°C) decrease total fertility rate (TFR) in Spain, and that the estimated decrease is higher than the effects estimated in previous literature for other countries. Moreover, we show that locations with a colder climate are more vulnerable to the impact of heat. Our results suggest that the global impact of climate change on population dynamics may be understated, especially without adaptation and mitigation measures, and that temperature increases may exacerbate the socio-economic consequences of low fertility such as population ageing.

Suggested Citation

  • Keivabu, Risto Conte & Cozzani, Marco & Wilde, Joshua, 2023. "Temperature and Fertility: Evidence from Spanish Register Data," IZA Discussion Papers 16110, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16110
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    1. Kasey S. Buckles & Daniel M. Hungerman, 2013. "Season of Birth and Later Outcomes: Old Questions, New Answers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 711-724, July.
    2. Kathryn Grace, 2017. "Considering climate in studies of fertility and reproductive health in poor countries," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 479-485, July.
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    8. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2022. "Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1751-1776, October.
    9. Brian C. Thiede & Sara Ronnkvist & Anna Armao & Katrina Burka, 2022. "Climate anomalies and birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Kien Le & My Nguyen, 2021. "The Impacts of Temperature Shocks on Birth Weight in Vietnam," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 1025-1047, December.
    11. Tom Wilson & Peter McDonald & Jeromey Temple, 2020. "The geographical patterns of birth seasonality in Australia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(40), pages 1185-1198.
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    13. Giuliano Masiero & Fabrizio Mazzonna & Michael Santarossa, 2022. "The effect of absolute versus relative temperature on health and the role of social care," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1228-1248, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; TFR; temperature; heat; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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