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A Conflict Theory of Voting

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  • Jeremy Petranka

    (Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, Indiana University Kelley School of Business)

Abstract

Research in the behavioral psychology of voting has found that voters tend to be poorly informed, highly responsive to candidate personality, and follow a "fast and frugal" heuristic. This paper analyzes optimal candidate strategies in a two-party election in which voters are assumed to behave according to these traits. Under this assumption, candidates face a trade-off between appealing to a broader base and being overly ambiguous in their policy stances. A decrease in the cost of ambiguity within this model offers a parsimonious justification for the increase in voter independence, candidate ambiguity, and party politics that empirical studies have revealed over the last five decades. I additionally argue a decrease in the cost of ambiguity is a natural result of the primary system, campaign finance reform, and changing media environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Petranka, 2008. "A Conflict Theory of Voting," Working Papers 2010-07, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, revised Mar 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:iuk:wpaper:2010-07
    as

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    File URL: http://kelley.iu.edu/riharbau/RePEc/iuk/wpaper/bepp2010-07-petranka.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeremy Petranka, 2009. "A Threshold Interpretation of the Ratio-Form Contest Success Function," Working Papers 2010-06, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, revised Mar 2010.
    2. Gigerenzer, Gerd & Todd, Peter M. & ABC Research Group,, 2000. "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195143812.
    3. Weber,Elke U. & Baron,Jonathan & Loomes,Graham (ed.), 2001. "Conflict and Tradeoffs in Decision Making," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521772389, September.
    4. John Ledyard, 1984. "The pure theory of large two-candidate elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 7-41, January.
    5. Tim Groseclose & Jeffrey Milyo, 2005. "A Measure of Media Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1191-1237.
    6. Groseclose, Tim & Levitt, Steven D. & Snyder, James M., 1999. "Comparing Interest Group Scores across Time and Chambers: Adjusted ADA Scores for the U.S. Congress," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(1), pages 33-50, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Petranka, 2009. "A Threshold Interpretation of the Ratio-Form Contest Success Function," Working Papers 2010-06, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, revised Mar 2010.

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