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Futures Spread Risk in Soybean Multi-Year Hedge-To-Arrive Contracts

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  • Blue, E. N.
  • Hayenga, Marvin L.
  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Baldwin, E. Dean

Abstract

Soybean futures spreads in the 1948-1997 period are evaluated for the associated monetary risks inherent in multiyear hedge-to-arrive contracts (HTAs). For all years, the probability of having a negative old crop-new crop spread is approximately 75%. However, the high-price years have a 100% probability of having a negative spread and a 50-60% probability of having a negative spread exceeding 10 percent. The spread risk in high price years makes a multiyear HTA an imprecise hedge. Thus, establishing new crop prices close to current futures prices by initially using old crop futures is unlikely

Suggested Citation

  • Blue, E. N. & Hayenga, Marvin L. & Lence, Sergio H. & Baldwin, E. Dean, 1998. "Futures Spread Risk in Soybean Multi-Year Hedge-To-Arrive Contracts," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1328, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1328
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    1. Bruce L. Gardner, 1989. "Rollover Hedging and Missing Long-Term Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 311-318.
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    1. Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2002. "The white shrimp futures market: Lessons in contract design and marketing," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 505-522.
    2. Unterschultz, James R. & Gurung, Rajendra Kumar, 2002. "New Generation Co-Operatives (Ngc) As A Model For Value-Added Agricultural Processing In Alberta: Applications To Factors Affecting Choice Of Pricing And Payment Practices By Traditional Marketing And," Project Report Series 24045, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.

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