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The Rationality and Price Effects of Usda Forecasts of Oranges

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  • Orazem, Peter
  • Baur, Robert F.

Abstract

Examines the effect of public information on the orange juice market. Investigation of the rationality, information content and price effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts of the production of oranges; Contents of the first forecast; Occurrence of significant price movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Orazem, Peter & Baur, Robert F., 1994. "The Rationality and Price Effects of Usda Forecasts of Oranges," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11133, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:11133
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    Cited by:

    1. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    2. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    3. Dutta, Shantanu & Bergen, Mark & Levy, Daniel, 2002. "Price flexibility in channels of distribution: Evidence from scanner data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1845-1900, September.
    4. Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.
    5. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    6. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    9. Aulerich, Nicole M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37579, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    10. Lusk, Jayson L., 2016. "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).

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