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Measuring Sentiment: The Impact on Financial Markets Volatility

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  • Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia
  • Carolina e Silva Correia de Carvalho

Abstract

This paper provides insights into the impact of sentiment factors on stock market volatility using monthly panel data from Germany, the UK and the US from 2002-2022. The main objective is to understand how the consumer confidence index, the trading volume, the put/call ratio, and the number of IPOs - components of the sentiment index used in this research - affect the volatility of the DAX 40, FTSE 100, and S&P 500 indices, respectively. The results suggest that investor sentiment has an impact on market volatility in all three indices. A higher consumer confidence index correlates with lower volatility, suggesting that positive sentiment stabilizes markets. Conversely, increased trading volume and a higher put/call ratio are associated with increased volatility, reflecting greater market activity and investor uncertainty. In addition, the number of IPOs serves as a sentiment gauge, with increased IPO activity corresponding to a more optimistic market outlook and contributing to lower volatility. Overall, the results underscore the importance of integrating sentiment measures into financial analysis and provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers seeking to understand and manage market fluctuations. This research contributes to the behavioural finance literature by elucidating the complex interplay between investor sentiment and stock market behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & Carolina e Silva Correia de Carvalho, 2025. "Measuring Sentiment: The Impact on Financial Markets Volatility," Working Papers REM 2025/0365, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03652025
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    3. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sentiment; volatility; stock market.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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