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The role of fiscal policy rating variables on economic growth in the LDCs

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  • António Afonso
  • M. Carmen Blanco-Arana

Abstract

We assess empirically the role of the World Bank’s Country Policy so-called fiscal policy rating variables (fiscal rating, debt rating and revenue rating) on economic growth in the 46 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the world, during the period 1990-2022. We also investigate the role of key fiscal variables on economic growth (government debt, expenditure and tax revenue). The empirical evidence suggests that better fiscal policy rating strongly and positively affects economic growth. We also find that the influence of government debt and tax revenue can contribute to influence economic growth. Results are robust by applying a fixed effects model and GMM model.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, 2024. "The role of fiscal policy rating variables on economic growth in the LDCs," Working Papers REM 2024/0331, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03312024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Fiscal volatility, financial crises and growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1821-1826, December.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    3. António Afonso & M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, 2022. "Financial and economic development in the context of the global 2008-09 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 30-42.
    4. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    7. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2007. "Finance, inequality and the poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 27-49, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; LDCs; fiscal policy; fixed effects model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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