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Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal

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  • António Afonso
  • José Carlos Coelho

Abstract

We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Portugal and Germany. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in Germany. On the other hand, the response of the budget balance to the current balance is higher in Germany than in Portugal. In Portugal and Germany, a fiscal rules index has a negative impact on the current account balance and the government effectiveness index has a positive impact on the government balance. The public debt as a percentage of GDP positively affects the current account balance in Portugal, and in Germany it does not. During the period of implementation of the external assistance programme in Portugal, the current account balance improved, while the government balance did not.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0208, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02082021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficit; external deficit; Portugal; Germany; fiscal rules; time-series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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