IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/remwps/wp01962021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

60%, -4% and 6%, a tale of thresholds for EU fiscal and current account developments

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • José Carlos Coelho

Abstract

We study the relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance for European Union (EU) countries, using quarterly data from 1995 to 2020. Through the use of panel Granger causality tests and a panel SUR model, we conclude that the relationship is bi-directional for the EU panel as a whole. Furthermore, we find that in Eurozone countries, before 2010, for those countries with an average current account balance-to-GDP ratio outside the range of -4 to 6%, and also in countries whose average debt-to-GDP ratio is greater than 60%, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is greater. Conversely, in non-Eurozone countries, after 2010, in countries with a current account balance-to-GDP ratio of -4 to 6%, and also in countries with an average debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 60%, the impact of the fiscal balance on the current account balance is less relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "60%, -4% and 6%, a tale of thresholds for EU fiscal and current account developments," Working Papers REM 2021/0196, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01962021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_0196_2021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    2. Michalis Nikiforos & Laura Carvalho & Christian Schoder, 2015. "“Twin deficits” in Greece: in search of causality," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 302-330, October.
    3. Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between investment, fiscal balances and current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 143-152.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    5. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    6. Robert A. Mundell, 1960. "The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 74(2), pages 227-257.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    11. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.
    12. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    13. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    14. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    15. Janko, Zuzana, 2020. "On the relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Harald Badinger & Aurélien Fichet de Clairfontaine & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2017. "Fiscal Rules and Twin Deficits: The Link between Fiscal and External Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 21-35, January.
    17. Adian McFarlane & Young Cheol Jung & Anupam Das, 2020. "The dynamics among domestic saving, investment, and the current account balance in the USA: a long-run perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1659-1680, April.
    18. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    19. Rosenswieg, Jeffrey A & Tallman, Ellis W, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 580-594, October.
    20. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    21. Abell, John D., 1990. "Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 81-96.
    22. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    23. Vince Daly & Jalal Siddiki, 2009. "The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1155-1164.
    24. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
    25. George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
    26. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 619-631, July.
    27. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 230-231, January.
    28. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
    29. Sylvia Kaufmann & Georg Winckler & Johann Scharler, 2002. "The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 529-542.
    30. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    31. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 876-878, October.
    32. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    33. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    34. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The EMU Experience of Portugal," EconPol Working Paper 68, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2022. "The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    3. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "The relationship between budget deficit and external deficit: the case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2020/0116, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Antonio Afonso & Jose Carlos Coelho, 2021. "Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal," Working Papers 2021.12, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    5. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2023. "Twin deficits through the looking glass: time-varying analysis in the Euro area," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2087-2110, August.
    6. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    7. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    8. Nikolina E. Kosteletou, 2013. "Financial Integration, Euro and the Twin Deficits of Southern Eurozone Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 161-178, April.
    9. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    10. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    11. Veronika Šuliková & Anna Tykhonenko, 2017. "The Impact Of Public Debt On The Twin Imbalances In Europe: A Threshold Model," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(213), pages 27-44, April - J.
    12. Bilman, Mustafa Erhan & Karaoğlan, Sadık, 2020. "Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 205-215.
    13. Umaima Arif & Maryam Latif & Asma Arif, 2024. "Assessing the triple deficit hypothesis in G-7 and D-8 countries: an evidence from heterogeneous panel methods," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 497-527, August.
    14. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-11.
    15. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.
    16. Al-Jahwari, Salim Ahmed Said, 2021. "Does the Twin-Deficits doctrine apply to the Gulf Cooperation Council? A dynamic panel VAR-X model approach," MPRA Paper 111232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Umer Jeelanie Banday & Ranjan Aneja, 2019. "Twin deficit hypothesis and reverse causality: a case study of China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Demdoumi, Meriem, 2016. "La gestion structurelle des déficits jumeaux au Maroc et la recherche d’une stratégie d’équilibre [Structural management of twin deficits in Morocco and Finding an equilibrium strategy]," MPRA Paper 71533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    19. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Chowdhury, Khorshed & Saleh, Ali Salman, 2007. "Testing the Keynesian Proposition of Twin Deficits in the Presence of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Sri Lanka after War: the case of a bridge too far?," Economics Working Papers wp07-09, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficit; external deficit; European Union; panel data; time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01962021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sandra Araújo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.