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Self-Defeating Austerity? Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Unemployment

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  • João Ferreira do Amaral
  • João Carlos Lopes

Abstract

The great recession of 2008/2009 has had a huge impact on unemployment and public finances in most advanced countries, and these impacts were magnified in the southern Euro area countries by the sovereign debt crisis of 2010/2011. The fiscal consolidation imposed by the European Union on highly indebted countries was based on the assumptions of the so-called expansionary austerity. However, the reality so far shows proof to the contrary, and the results of this paper support the opposing view of a selfdefeating austerity. Based on the input-output relations of the productive system, an unemployment rate/budget balance trade-off equation is derived, as well as the impact of a strong fiscal consolidation based on social transfers and the notion of neutral budget balance. An application to the Portuguese case confirms the huge costs of a strong fiscal consolidation, both in terms of unemployment and social policy regress, and it allows one to conclude that too much consolidation in one year makes consolidation more difficult in the following year. Key Words : Self-defeating austerity; Fiscal consolidation; Unemployment; Input-output analysis; Portugal

Suggested Citation

  • João Ferreira do Amaral & João Carlos Lopes, 2016. "Self-Defeating Austerity? Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Unemployment," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/13, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp132016
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    Cited by:

    1. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "A new assessment of the Troika ´s economic policy for Portugal in 2012 following an Input-Output approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0121, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "Self-defeating austerity in Portugal during the Troika's economic and financial adjustment programme," Working Papers REM 2020/0124, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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