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Zamierzenia prokreacyjne a mo¿liwoœæ ich realizacji w kontekœcie czynników biologicznych

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  • Krzysztof Tymicki

    (Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

G³ównym celem prezentowanego badania by³o okreœlenie wp³ywu czynników biologicznych na mo¿liwoœæ realizacji zamierzeñ prokreacyjnych. W wiêkszoœci spo³eczeñstw krajów rozwiniêtych dwoje dzieci jest najczêœciej deklarowan¹ liczb¹ potomstwa. Deklaracje te pozostaj¹ w sprzecznoœci z obserwowanymi wspó³czynnikami dzietnoœci, które na ogó³ nie osi¹gaj¹ wartoœci bliskej poziomu, który gwarantuje zastêpowalnoœæ pokoleñ. Ró¿nica miêdzy dzietnoœci¹ planowan¹ a zrealizowan¹ jest najczêœciej t³umaczona za pomoc¹ wp³ywu czynników ekonomiczno-spo³ecznych. Zaprezentowana analiza podejmuje próbê wyjaœnienia ró¿nicy miêdzy dzietnoœci¹ planowan¹ a zrealizowan¹ za pomoc¹ czynników o charakterze biologicznym. Podstawowym czynnikiem wyjaœniaj¹cym jest tu spadek p³odnoœci biologicznej wraz z wiekiem. Zatem, uwzglêdniaj¹c wspó³czesny wzorzec dzietnoœci charakteryzuj¹cy siê rosn¹cym wiekiem rodzenia pierwszego dziecka czynniki biologiczne mog¹ mieæ co raz wiêksze znaczenie. Podstawowa hipoteza badawcza g³osi, i¿ wraz ze wzrostem œredniego wieku rodzenia pierwszego dziecka powinno obserwowaæ siê wyd³u¿anie tzw. czasu oczekiwania na ci¹¿ê. W celu weryfikacji postawionej hipotezy wykorzystane zosta³y dane zgromadzone w badaniu GGS-PL. Wyniki badañ pokazuj¹, i¿ mamy do czynienia z istotnym wyd³u¿eniem siê czasu oczekiwania na ci¹¿ê dla kobiet w wieku 35 lat i wiêcej. Wyniki te zdaj¹ siê potwierdzaæ zaobserwowany w innych badaniach spadek p³odnoœci biologicznej. Wyniki analiz dyskutowane s¹ w kontekœcie takich konsekwencji póŸnego macierzyñstwa jak niep³odnoœæ, bezp³odnoœæ, bezdzietnoœæ a tak¿e wp³yw decyzji prokreacyjnych na ogólny poziom dzietnoœci.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Tymicki, 2013. "Zamierzenia prokreacyjne a mo¿liwoœæ ich realizacji w kontekœcie czynników biologicznych," Working Papers 56, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isd:wpaper:56
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12182/1259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    p³odnoœæ; dzietnoœæ; bezp³odnoœæ; bezdzietnoœæ; czas oczekiwania na ci¹¿ê; intencje prokreacyjne;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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