Changes in the patterns of poverty duration in Germany, 1992-2009

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study explores how the duration of poverty and its determinants evolved in Germany between the early 1990s and the late 2000s. Shifts in the duration of poverty over time are captured with the application of a rolling window framework which allows us to identify when exactly a change occurred and to link it to trends in general macro-economic conditions and social policies. Joint modeling of poverty and non-poverty spells, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, is applied within each window in order to uncover how the poverty experiences of individuals with different socio-economic characteristics have evolved over time. The results indicate that poverty has become more persistent and recurrent in Germany since the beginning of the 1990s. While those living in East Germany and in households with an EU head partially improved their situation over time, individuals over 55 years old, households with a disabled or uneducated head as well as single parent households have become more prone to poverty.