Forecasting progress towards the EU-level targets of the European Education Area

This report examines future trajectories in early school leavers and tertiary education attainment in the EU up to 2030, based on the empirical model proposed by Dragomirescu-Gaina and Weber (2013). The forecasts indicate that the EU is likely to achieve the 45% target for tertiary education attainment by a considerable margin, while the achievement of the 9% target for early school leavers is more uncertain given the high heterogeneity across Member States. Moreover, the recent disruption of Covid-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine pose challenges in predicting these indicators. The report qualitatively discusses how the disruption caused by Covid-19 may have mixed impacts on educational attainment, while highlighting that the invasion and the subsequent energy crisis may lead to educational inequalities. The finding may inform policy makers on possible adjustments of the educational targets and draw attention to the importance of monitoring these indicators.