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Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand

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Abstract

The tourism industry, a significant contributor to European GDP, may face considerable stress due to climate change. This study examines the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand in European regions in the 2100 time horizon. Using data from 269 European regions over a 20-year monthly timespan, we estimate the effect of current climatic conditions (rated with a Tourism Climatic Index, TCI), on tourism demand, considering various regional typologies. Our findings reveal that climate conditions significantly affect tourism demand, with coastal regions being the most impacted areas. Next, we simulate the impacts of future climate change on tourism demand for four warming levels (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C) under two emissions pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find a clear north-south pattern in tourism demand changes, with northern regions benefitting from climate change and southern regions facing significant reductions in tourism demand; that pattern becomes more pronounced for higher warming scenarios. The seasonal distribution of tourism demand would also change, with relative reductions in summer and increases in the shoulder and winter seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • MATEI Nicoleta-Anca & GARCIA LEON David & DOSIO Alessandro & BATISTA Filipe & RIBEIRO BARRANCO Ricardo & CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos, 2023. "Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand," JRC Research Reports JRC131508, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc131508
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC131508
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    Cited by:

    1. Dzintra Atstāja & Edmira Cakrani, 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on International Tourism Evidence from Baltic Sea Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Ismail Cinar & Zeynep R. Ardahanlıoğlu & Süleyman Toy, 2024. "Land Use/Land Cover Changes in a Mediterranean Summer Tourism Destination in Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-16, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism; climate change; panel data; TCI; NUTS 2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development

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