Agricultural markets in Ukraine: current situation and market outlook until 2030

This report presents the current situation and an outlook for the major Ukrainian agricultural commodity markets until 2030 along with the update of the Ukraine country model in AGMEMOD. AGMEMOD is a system of partial equilibrium, medium-term, dynamic, multi-market and multi-country econometric models that is applied for generating projections for agricultural commodity markets of the EU and neighbour countries. In the current work, the database and the behavioural functions representing market agents of the Ukraine country model have been updated. The outlook results for 2030 show that while the quantity of wheat produced in Ukraine will increase only marginally, maize is expected to become the dominant cereal. Adaptation to climate change is the main driving force behind this trend. Domestic soya beans, rapeseed and sunflower seeds production will continue growing, along with the quantities of oilseed oils and meals. Cattle and swine farming is expected to follow its ongoing structural change that shows the replacement of self-subsistent producers (rural households) by specialised farms. However, the specialised larger producers will not compensate the loss in animal numbers from the rural households and, therefore, production quantities of beef and pork are likely to slow down in the next decade. Conversely, poultry meat and eggs production are projected to grow. As the COVID-19 pandemic has been ongoing since early 2020, this report also analyses its impacts on the Ukrainian agriculture. The analysis demonstrates medium to long term resilience of the Ukrainian agricultural commodities production and export to this crisis. Overall, the current report shows that AGMEMOD provides relevant results and enables a structured discussion about key development trends, changes and causes of changes in production and trade of agri-food commodities.