IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipe/ipetds/0182.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time Series Econometrics in a Post-acquisition Antitrust Analysis: the Brazilian Iron ore Market

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo P. S. Fiuza
  • Fabiana F. M. Tito

Abstract

In Brazil, mergers and acquisitions are usually analyzed by the Antitrust Authorities ex post, following a SCP framework close to the Merger Guidelines applied in the USA. However, this framework was unable to address a set of acquisitions of four mining companies by the newly privatized national champion CVRD. The present article reports an econometric exercise undertaken by the Brazilian Ministry of Justice, which came to reinforce the definition of the relevant geographic market and to test for structural breaks in the price series. Though international prices Grangercaused domestic prices in Brazil, they explain less than a third of the variance. A price surge on the acquired miners’ series was observed above the export price increase not long after the acquisitions, such that a structural break could not be rejected. No Brasil, fusões e aquisições normalmente são analisadas ex-post pelo Sistema Brasileiro de Defesa da Concorrência, seguindo um arcabouço de Estrutura-Conduta-Desempenho próximo ao aplicado nos Estados Unidos. Entretanto, esse arcabouço não era suficiente para tratar da série de quatro aquisições de mineradoras pela recémprivatizada Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), considerada uma “campeã nacional”. Este artigo relata um exercício econométrico desenvolvido na Secretaria de Direito Econômico (SDE) do Ministério da Justiça que veio reforçar a definição de mercado relevante geográfico e testar quebras estruturais nas séries de preços. Apesar de que os preços internacionais causaram (no sentido de Granger) preços domésticos no Brasil, eles explicam menos de 1/3 da variância. Foi observado um repique nas séries de preços das mineradoras adquiridas acima da variação do preço de exportação, pouco depois das aquisições, quando então não foi rejeitada uma quebra estrutural.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo P. S. Fiuza & Fabiana F. M. Tito, 2015. "Time Series Econometrics in a Post-acquisition Antitrust Analysis: the Brazilian Iron ore Market," Discussion Papers 0182, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/ingles/dp_182.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-478, October.
    2. Haldrup, Niels, "undated". "Empirical analysis of price data in the delineation of the relevant geographical market in competition analysis," Economics Working Papers 2003-9, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Mario Forni, 2004. "Using Stationarity Tests in Antitrust Market Definition," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 6(2), pages 441-464.
    6. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eduardo P. S. Fiuza & Fabiana F.M. Tito, 2007. "Time Series Econometrics in a Post-Acquisition Antitrust Analysis: The Brazilian Iron Ore Market," Discussion Papers 1306, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, September.
    3. Fiuza, Eduardo P.S. & Tito, Fabiana F.M., 2010. "Post-merger time series analysis: Iron ore mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 141-155, September.
    4. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    5. Aisha Ismail & Kashif Rashid, 2014. "Time series analysis of the nexus among corruption, political instability and judicial inefficiency in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2757-2771, September.
    6. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    7. Vladimír Hajko & Jaroslav Bil, 2013. "The Relevant Markets for Meat Production and Processing in the Czech Republic: Analysis of the Price Movements," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 178-197, November.
    8. Gaolu Zou & K. W. Chau, 2019. "Long- and Short-Run Effects of Fuel Prices on Freight Transportation Volumes in Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-12, September.
    9. Liming Zhao & Liang Zhao & Bing-Fu Chen, 2017. "The interrelationship between defence spending, public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from China," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 703-718, November.
    10. Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian, 2013. "What if energy time series are not independent? Implications for energy-GDP causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 753-759.
    11. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Can family-planning programs "cause" a significant fertility decline in countries characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development? New evidence from Bangladesh based on dynamic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 441-468, August.
    12. Tamba, Jean Gaston & Njomo, Donatien & Limanond, Thirayoot & Ntsafack, Borel, 2012. "Causality analysis of diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 567-575.
    13. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    14. Robaina, M. & Madaleno, M. & Silva, S. & Eusébio, C. & Carneiro, M.J. & Gama, C. & Oliveira, K. & Russo, M.A. & Monteiro, A., 2020. "The relationship between tourism and air quality in five European countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 261-272.
    15. Mohd. FAYAZ & Sandeep KAUR, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Determinants Of India’S High-Technology Exports," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 29-44.
    16. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Rasool, Ghulam & Ahmed, Khalid & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2016. "Considering the effect of biomass energy consumption on economic growth: Fresh evidence from BRICS region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1442-1450.
    18. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    19. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    20. Haldrup, Niels, "undated". "Empirical analysis of price data in the delineation of the relevant geographical market in competition analysis," Economics Working Papers 2003-9, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabio Schiavinatto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipeaabr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.