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Trade creation and trade diversion of regional trade agreements revisited: A constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach

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  • Michael Pfaffermayr

Abstract

For the estimation of structural gravity models using PPML with countrypair, exporter-time and importer-time effects it proves useful to exploit the equilibrium restrictions imposed by the system of multilateral resistances. This yields an iterative projection based PPML estimator that is unaffected by the incidental parameters problem. Further, in this setting it is straight forward to establish the asymptotic distribution of the structural parameters and that of counterfactual predictions. The present contribution applies the constrained panel PPML estimator to reconsider the trade creation and trade diversion effects of regional trade agreements. Results show significant trade creation effects of RTAs ranging in between 8.7 and 21.7 percent in 2012, but also point to substantial trade diversion in the range of -14.4 and -5.8 percent. These counterfactual predictions account for adjustment in multilateral trade resistances. The quite large confidence intervals of counterfactual predictions seem to be an overlooked issue in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Pfaffermayr, 2018. "Trade creation and trade diversion of regional trade agreements revisited: A constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach," Working Papers 2018-10, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2018-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2021. "Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 338-375, February.
    2. Xing Yao & Yongzhong Zhang & Rizwana Yasmeen & Zhen Cai, 2021. "The impact of preferential trade agreements on bilateral trade: A structural gravity model analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2020. "Constrained Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation of structural gravity models," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 188-198.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Constrained Panel Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation; International Trade; Gravity Equation; Structural Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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