IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inn/wpaper/2017-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Probabilistic Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States at Vienna International Airport During Cold Season

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Kneringer
  • Sebastian J. Dietz
  • Georg J. Mayr
  • Achim Zeileis

Abstract

Airport operations are sensitive to visibility conditions. Low-visibility events may lead to capacity reduction, delays and economic losses. Different levels of low-visibility procedures (lvp) are enacted to ensure aviation safety. A nowcast of the probabilities for each of the lvp categories helps decision makers to optimally schedule their operations. An ordered logistic regression (OLR) model is used to forecast these probabilities directly. It is applied to cold season forecasts at Vienna International Airport for lead times of 30-min out to two hours. Model inputs are standard meteorological measurements. The skill of the forecasts is accessed by the ranked probability score. OLR outperforms persistence, which is a strong contender at the shortest lead times. The ranked probability score of the OLR is even better than the one of nowcasts from human forecasters. The OLR-based nowcasting system is computationally fast and can be updated instantaneously when new data become available.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Kneringer & Sebastian J. Dietz & Georg J. Mayr & Achim Zeileis, 2017. "Probabilistic Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States at Vienna International Airport During Cold Season," Working Papers 2017-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2017-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2017-21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rainer Winkelmann & Stefan Boes, 2006. "Analysis of Microdata," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-29607-2, March.
    2. Debashree Dutta & Sutapa Chaudhuri, 2015. "Nowcasting visibility during wintertime fog over the airport of a metropolis of India: decision tree algorithm and artificial neural network approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1349-1368, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Boes & Rainer Winkelmann, 2010. "The Effect of Income on General Life Satisfaction and Dissatisfaction," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 111-128, January.
    2. Michelle Brown & John Heywood, 2009. "Helpless in Finance: The Cost of Helping Effort Among Bank Employees," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 176-195, June.
    3. Dettmann, Eva & Lacasa, Iciar Dominguez & Guenther, Jutta & Jindra, Bjorn, 2014. "Детерминанты Зарубежной Технологической Активности В Германии - Количественный Анализ Транснациональных Патентов [Determinants of Foreign Technological Activity in German Regions - A Count Model An," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 34-51.
    4. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2013. "The Response Speed of the International Monetary Fund," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 189-211, June.
    5. Ayu Washizu & Satoshi Nakano & Hideo Ishii & Yasuhiro Hayashi, 2019. "Willingness to Pay for Home Energy Management Systems: A Survey in New York and Tokyo," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2015. "Estado de salud y participación laboral: Evidencia para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 12497, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2016. "Health status and labor force participation: evidence for urban low and middle income individuals in Colombia," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(1), pages 33-55, April.
    8. Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-François & Vogler, Jan, 2013. "Analysis of discrete dependent variable models with spatial correlation," Economics Working Papers 2013-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    9. Matter, Ulrich & Stutzer, Alois, 2014. "The Role of Lawyer-Legislators in Shaping the Law: Evidence from Voting Behavior on Tort Reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100452, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Schmid, Basil & Axhausen, Kay W., 2019. "In-store or online shopping of search and experience goods: A hybrid choice approach," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 156-180.
    11. Christoph Grimpe & Wolfgang Sofka & Ulrich Kaiser, 2023. "Competing for digital human capital: The retention effect of digital expertise in MNC subsidiaries," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(4), pages 657-685, June.
    12. Keld Laursen & Francesca Masciarelli & Toke Reichstein, 2016. "A Matter of Location: The Role of Regional Social Capital in Overcoming the Liability of Newness in R&D Acquisition Activities," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1537-1550, September.
    13. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Basil Guggenheim & Silvio Schumacher, 2016. "Re‐Use of Collateral in the Repo Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1169-1193, September.
    14. Juan José Dolado & E. Morales, 2007. "Which Factors Determine Academic Performance of Undergraduate Students in Economics?: Some Spanish Evidence," Working Papers 2007-23, FEDEA.
    15. Di Porto Edoardo & Revelli Federico, 2009. "Central Command, Local Hazard and the Race to the Top," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200909, University of Turin.
    16. Jean-François Richard, 2015. "Likelihood Evaluation of High-Dimensional Spatial Latent Gaussian Models with Non-Gaussian Response Variables," Working Paper 5778, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    17. Andrzej Bąk & Elżbieta Nawrocka & Daria E. Jaremen, 2022. "“Sustainability” as a Motive for Choosing Shared-Mobility Services: The Case of Polish Consumers of Uber Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, May.
    18. Adolfo Meisel-Roca & Hernando Vargas-Herrera (ed.), 2018. "Ensayos sobre crecimiento económico en Colombia," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 2018-06.
    19. Sergio I. Prada & David Salkever & Ellen J. MacKenzie, 2012. "Level-I Trauma Center Effects on Return-to-Work Outcomes," Evaluation Review, , vol. 36(2), pages 133-164, April.
    20. Roman Liesenfeld & Guilherme Valle Moura & Jean‐François Richard, 2010. "Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 486-517, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aviation meteorology; low visibility; probabilistic nowcasting; statistical forecasts; ordered logistic regression;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2017-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Judith Courian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fuibkat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.