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The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments

Author

Listed:
  • Jamel Saadaoui

    (University of Paris 8)

Abstract

This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that these dynamic effects are unstable over time. Indeed, these effects have been more observable since the global financial crisis, with China being increasingly perceived as a threat in the U.S. Instability is detected around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, geopolitical risks and political tensions influence oil price at different time horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "The Impact of Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 2024.13, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.13
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-Varying Local Projections; China; Oil Price; Political Relations; Geopolitical Risks; Global Financial Crisis; COVID-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

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