IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/inf/wpaper/2014.04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Systemic Sovereign Risk in Europe: an MES and CES Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra Popescu

    (University of Orleans)

  • Camelia Turcu

    (University of Orleans)

Abstract

We transpose the concept of systemic risk measurement used in the financial literature to the sovereign debt crisis. We base our analysis on two systemic risk measures, the Marginal Expected Short- fall (MES) and the Component Expected Shortfall (CES), that are estimated by a Dynamic Conditional Correlation model (DCC) and by non parametric techniques. We use daily data on government bonds yields 10Y and quarterly sovereign debts over the period 2001-2013 for eleven Eurozone countries. Our results allow us to identify the countries that have the highest contribution to systemic risk and to perform comparisons in terms of countries’ riskiness within the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Popescu & Camelia Turcu, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk in Europe: an MES and CES Approach," Working Papers 2014.04, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2014.04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://infer-research.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/5plj07i26o9mz1zb8iivrvwuc5xad5sx1467809063.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
    2. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    3. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2013. "Sovereign bond yield spillovers in the Euro zone during the financial and debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 258-272.
    4. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2014. "Sovereign credit ratings, market volatility, and financial gains," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 20-33.
    7. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    8. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
    10. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    11. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
    12. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    13. Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2009. "From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish: How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 2009/108, International Monetary Fund.
    14. O. de Bandt & J.-C. Héam & C. Labonne & S. Tavolaro, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in a Post-Crisis World," Débats économiques et financiers 6, Banque de France.
    15. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Mathias Drehmann & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Systemic importance: some simple indicators," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    17. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2013. "Systemic Risk and Home Bias in the Euro Area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 494, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2016. "CoRisk: measuring systemic risk through default probability contagion," DEM Working Papers Series 116, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2017. "Sovereign risk in the Euro area: a multivariate stochastic process approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1995-2008, December.
    3. Henryk Gurgul & Roland Mestel & Robert Syrek, 2017. "MIDAS models in banking sector – systemic risk comparison," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 18(2), pages 165-181.
    4. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2018. "CoRisk: Credit Risk Contagion with Correlation Network Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
    6. Chatterjee, Somnath & Jobst, Andreas, 2019. "Market-implied systemic risk and shadow capital adequacy," Bank of England working papers 823, Bank of England.
    7. Kurter, Zeynep O., 2022. "How macroeconomic conditions affect systemic risk in the short and long-run?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1407, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2015. "Modeling Systemic Risk with Correlated Stochastic Processes," DEM Working Papers Series 110, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    3. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    4. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    5. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    6. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    7. Katarzyna Sum, 2013. "The Impact of Banking Regulation on the Economic Performance of EU Countries in 2007-2009," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 5-19.
    8. Luciana Barbosa & Sónia Costa, 2010. "Determinants of the sovereign bond yield spreads in the Euro Area in the context of the economic and financial crisis," Working Papers w201022, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    10. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-153.
    11. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 711-724, April.
    12. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "Economic volatility and sovereign yields’ determinants: a time-varying approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 427-451, February.
    13. Juodžiukynienė Greta, 2016. "The Significance of Country-Specific and Common Risk Factors for CEE Government Bond Spreads Changes," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(1), pages 84-111, January.
    14. Elisabetta Croci Angelini & Francesco Farina & Enzo Valentini, 2016. "Contagion across Eurozone’s sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 197-213, February.
    15. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
    16. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    17. Thomas Conefrey & David Cronin, 2015. "Spillover in Euro Area Sovereign Bond Markets," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(2), pages 197-231.
    18. Eleonora Cutrini & Giorgio Galeazzi, 2017. "External Public Debt, Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1718-1749, September.
    19. Sha Liu, 2014. "The Impact of Textual Sentiment on Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone Crisis," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 18(3-4), pages 215-248, September.
    20. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2014.04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Cerqueira (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inferea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.