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Keine Rückkehr des Schreckgespenstes Inflation - Geldpolitische Herausforderungen 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Der Sprung der Inflationsrate zu Jahresbeginn ist – wie die sehr schwache Inflationsentwicklung 2020 – auf Sonderfaktoren wie die vorübergehende Mehrwertsteuersenkung, die Achterbahnfahrt des Ölpreises und die Pandemie zurückzuführen. Eine Diskussion über einen Ausstieg aus der Niedrigzinspolitik wäre gänzlich verfrüht. Die Kerninflation im Euroraum liegt bereits seit Anfang 2014 bei durchschnittlich nur 0,9 %. Diese zu geringe Grunddynamik der Inflation spiegelt eine deutliche Unterauslastung der Wirtschaft wider und dürfte sich infolge des Wirtschaftseinbruchs im vergangenen Jahr noch weiter abgeschwächt haben. Die Unterbeschäftigungsquote – ein breiteres Maß für die Arbeitslosigkeit – deutet mit 16 % im Euroraum und knapp 9 % in Deutschland eine ausgeprägte Unterauslastung der Wirtschaft an. Aktuell besteht die Chance, dass die europäische Wirtschaft mithilfe der stark expansiven Geld- und Fiskalpolitik und begünstigt durch ein positives internationales Umfeld einen kräftigen Erholungskurs einschlägt, in der die Angebotskapazitäten durch Investitionen ausgeweitet und Weichen für die sozial-ökologische Transformation gestellt werden. Im Zuge eines kräftigen Aufschwungs würde sich die Inflation in Richtung des Inflationsziels entwickeln und es bestünde mittelfristig die Aussicht auf einen behutsamen Ausstieg aus der langwährenden Niedrigzinspolitik.

Suggested Citation

  • Silke Tober & Thomas Theobald, 2021. "Keine Rückkehr des Schreckgespenstes Inflation - Geldpolitische Herausforderungen 2021," IMK Report 166-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:166-2021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Dullien & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober, 2021. "Öffentliche Investitionen im Konjunkturprogramm als Einstieg in die sozial-ökologische Transformation," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(3), pages 172-175, March.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?," NBER Working Papers 24179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silke Tober, 2021. "Inflation 2021: kein geldpolitischer Handlungsbedarf," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(9), pages 681-684, September.

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