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Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Albrizio
  • Mr. John C Bluedorn
  • Mr. Christoffer Koch
  • Mr. Andrea Pescatori
  • Martin Stuermer

Abstract

We assess the supply-side effects on European Union (EU) economic activity if Russian gas imports were to suddenly cease. Unlike other studies, we account for the global scope of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. In the absence of frictions, an open-economy, multi-sector general equilibrium model suggests that the adverse economic impact on the EU shrinks five-fold if integration with the global LNG market is considered. While greater integration provides a buffer for the EU through trade, the flip side is that other LNG importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and Pakistan) see adverse effects from higher prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Albrizio & Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Christoffer Koch & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Market Size and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain of a Potential Russian Gas Shut-off to the European Union," IMF Working Papers 2022/143, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/143
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," Working Papers hal-03880930, HAL.
      • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03880930, HAL.
      • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben McWilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 034, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.

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