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Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact

Author

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  • Constance de Soyres
  • Reina Kawai
  • Mengxue Wang

Abstract

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.

Suggested Citation

  • Constance de Soyres & Reina Kawai & Mengxue Wang, 2022. "Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact," IMF Working Papers 2022/076, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/076
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=517449
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alin Vasile Străchinaru, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic indicators of economic growth: an empirical analysis of Central and Eastern European countries," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 15(8), pages 155-176, December.
    2. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    3. Busato, Francesco & Albanese, Marina & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Inflation-based fiscal consolidation: a DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 113838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ngasamiaku, Wilhelm M. & Ngong'ho, Sende, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Public Debt in Tanzania: Empirical Evidence and lessons for Post COVID-19 Recovery," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(5), December.
    5. Kovács, Olivér, 2023. "Fiskális politika az öröklétnek - államadósság: ördög vagy messiás?* Olivier Blanchard: Fiscal Policy Under Low Interest Rates. MIT Press, 2023, 192 o [Fiscal policy for eternity - public dept: dev," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 103-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Debt; Growth; IMF predictions; public debt shock; GDP ratio; public debt trajectory; evolution of public debt; level classification; Debt relief; Global;
    All these keywords.

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