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Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?

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  • Ms. Sally Chen
  • Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

Abstract

Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Sally Chen & Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2021. "Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?," IMF Working Papers 2021/116, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/116
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Giovanni Camacho Ardila & Federico Hernández Álvarez & Luis Ignacio Román de la Sancha, 2023. "Ciclos en el Sector Bancario Mexicano: un Índice Coincidente (CP1G7) vía ACP," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, Octubre -.
    2. Łukasz Markowski & Aleksandra Ostrowska, 2024. "Synchronizacja cyklu gospodarczego i finansowego w krajach Unii Europejskiej," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 178-208.
    3. Yusuf Yıldırım & Anirban Sanyal, 2022. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Early Warning Indicators: An Application of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Approach to Panel Data," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(4), pages 557-597, December.
    4. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jackson, Timothy P., 2022. "Monetary and macroprudential policy coordination with biased preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Beltran, Daniel O. & Dalal, Vihar M. & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Paine, Fiona A., 2024. "Optimizing composite early warning indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    equity price cycle; property price cycle; banking crisis; BIS-definition credit cycle; C. cycle property; Financial cycles; Banking crises; Credit; Land prices; Business cycles; Global;
    All these keywords.

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