IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2021-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Parameterizing Debt Maturity

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Philip Barrett
  • Christopher Johns

Abstract

This paper examines ways to summarize the maturity structure of public debts using a small number of parameters. We compile a novel dataset of all promised future payments for US and UK government debt from every month since 1869, and more recently for Peru, Poland, Egypt, and Nigeria. We show that there is a unique parametric form which does not arbitrarily restrict debt issuance – portfolios of bonds with exponential coupons. Compared to the most popular alternative, this form 1) more accurately describes changes in debt maturity for these six countries and 2) gives a quite different interpretation of historical debt maturity. Our work can be applied not just to analyze past debt movements, but – because parameter estimates are relatively similar across countries – also for monitoring changes in debt maturity, including in countries where data are partial or incomplete.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Philip Barrett & Christopher Johns, 2021. "Parameterizing Debt Maturity," IMF Working Papers 2021/101, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=50299
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
    2. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2017. "Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1693-1754.
    3. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    5. Franco Modigliani & Richard Sutch, 1967. "Debt Management and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis of Recent Experience," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 569-569.
    6. Anmol Bhandari & David Evans & Mikhail Golosov & Thomas Sargent, 2019. "The Optimal Maturity of Government Debt," 2019 Meeting Papers 1011, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Nezih Guner & Remzi Kaygusuz & Gustavo Ventura, 2014. "Income Taxation of U.S. Households: Facts and Parametric Estimates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 559-581, October.
    8. Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2013. "Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Progarms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 3-39, March.
    9. Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine & Wright, Mark L.J., 2014. "The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-17.
    10. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    11. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Rigas Oikonomou & Andrew Scott, 2019. "Government Debt Management: The Long and the Short of It," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2554-2604.
    12. Nezih Guner & Remzi Kaygusuz & Gustavo Ventura, 2014. "Income Taxation of U.S. Households: Facts and Parametric Estimates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 559-581, October.
    13. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2020. "News, sovereign debt maturity, and default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Hayne Leland, 2019. "Bond Prices, Yield Spreads, and Optimal Capital Structure with Default Risk," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 40(3), pages 45-75.
    15. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    16. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    17. Seon Tae Kim & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2014. "Maturity and Repayment Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2014 Meeting Papers 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy with Noncontingent Debt and the Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131.
    19. Shin, Yongseok, 2007. "Managing the maturity structure of government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1565-1571, September.
    20. Ozan Bakis & Baris Kaymak & Markus Poschke, 2015. "Transitional Dynamics and the Optimal Progressivity of Income Redistribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 679-693, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boris Chafwehé & Charles de Beauffort & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    2. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Daniele Coen‐Pirani, 2021. "Geographic Mobility And Redistribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(3), pages 921-952, August.
    4. Eidam, Frederik, 2018. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-025, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Guner, Nezih & Lopez-Daneri, Martin & Ventura, Gustavo, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Government revenues: Higher taxes at the top?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 69-85.
    6. Eidam, Frederik, 2020. "Gap-filling government debt maturity choice," ESRB Working Paper Series 110, European Systemic Risk Board.
    7. Di Nola, Alessandro & Kocharkov, Georgi & Scholl, Almuth & Tkhir, Anna-Mariia & Wang, Haomin, 2022. "Taxation of Top Incomes and Tax Avoidance," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264016, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 55-102.
    9. Boar, Corina & Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2022. "Efficient redistribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 78-91.
    10. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Oni, Mehedi Hasan, 2023. "Progressive income taxation and consumption baskets of rich and poor," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Corsetti, G. & Erce, A. & Uy, T., 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1864, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    14. Nada Azmy Elberry & Frank Naert & Stijn Goeminne, 2023. "Optimal public debt composition during debt crises: A review of theoretical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 351-376, April.
    15. Musab Kurnaz & Mehmet Soytas, 2019. "Early Childhood Investment and Income Taxation," 2019 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Stephie Fried & Kevin Novan & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Recycling Carbon Tax Revenue to Maximize Welfare," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-023, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    18. Javier Bianchi & César Sosa-Padilla, 2024. "Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 2053-2103.
    19. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    20. Lyon, Spencer G. & Waugh, Michael E., 2018. "Redistributing the gains from trade through progressive taxation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 185-202.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    maturity structure; debt maturity; MLE estimate; debt issuance; debt obligation; Bonds; Securities markets; Securities; Emerging and frontier financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.