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The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Engler
  • Nathalie Pouokam
  • Diego Rodriguez Guzman
  • Mrs. Irina Yakadina

Abstract

Voluntary and government-mandated lockdowns in response to COVID-19 have caused causing drastic reductions in economic activity around the world. We present a parsimonious two-country-SIR model with some degree of substitutability between home and foreign goods, and show that trading partners’ asynchronous entries into the global pandemic induce mutual welfare gains from trade. Those gains are realized through exchange rate adjustments that cause a temporary reallocation of production towards the economy with the lowest infection rate at any point in time. We show that international cooperation over containment policies that aim at optimizing global welfare further enhances the ability of countries to exploit trade opportunities to contain the spread of the pandemic. We characterize the Nash game of strategic choices of containment policies as a prisoners’ dilemma.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Engler & Nathalie Pouokam & Diego Rodriguez Guzman & Mrs. Irina Yakadina, 2020. "The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination," IMF Working Papers 2020/242, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/242
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hongyi Chen & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Lockdown Spillovers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jimenez & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2023. "Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 71-89, January.

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