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European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

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  • Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang

Abstract

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage divergence. Econometric analysis using error correction models suggests that wage growth responds more quickly to changes in unemployment in the newer EU members than in advanced Europe, where wages are more closely related to inflation and inflation expectations in the short run, implying greater inertia in nominal wage rises in advanced Europe. In the years after the global crisis, this inertia contributed to the build up of a real wage overhang relative to sharply slowing labor productivity, which subsequently dragged on nominal wage rises even as unemployment began to decline. Spillovers of subdued wage growth between euro area countries also weighed on wage rises in advanced Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2019. "European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2019/156, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/156
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramskogler, Paul, 2021. "Labour market hierarchies and the macro-economy – Do labour market dualities affect wage growth in Europe?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 154-165.
    2. Lehner, Lukas & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2022. "Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    3. Sabine Klinger & Anvar Musayev & Jean-Marc Natal & Enzo Weber, 2019. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2019/301, International Monetary Fund.

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