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Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

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  • Mr. Yasser Abdih
  • Ms. Li Lin
  • Anne-Charlotte Paret

Abstract

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Yasser Abdih & Ms. Li Lin & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?," IMF Working Papers 2018/188, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/188
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    3. Mr. Balazs Csonto & Yuxuan Huang & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2019. "Is Digitalization Driving Domestic Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 2019/271, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    5. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    6. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Peter D. Williams & Mr. Yasser Abdih & Emanuel Kopp, 2020. "Reading the Stars," IMF Working Papers 2020/136, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Luigi Bonatti Roberto Tamborini & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Is High Inflation the New Challenge for Central Banks?," DEM Working Papers 2021/14, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Vladimir Mihajlović & Gordana Marjanović, 2020. "Asymmetries in effects of domestic inflation drivers in the Baltic States: a Phillips curve-based nonlinear ARDL approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 94-116.
    11. Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang, 2019. "European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2019/156, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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