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Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession

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  • Ms. Nan Li
  • Mr. Vance Martin

Abstract

This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Nan Li & Mr. Vance Martin, 2018. "Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 2018/100, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/100
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    Cited by:

    1. Ha Nguyen & Shawheen Rezaei & Divya Agarwal, 2022. "The great recession and job loss spillovers: impact of tradable employment shocks on supporting services," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 789-815, June.
    2. Michele Boldrin & Carlos Garriga & Adrian Peralta-Alva & Juan M. Sanchez, 2020. "Reconstructing the Great Recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(3), pages 271-311, July.
    3. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
    4. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Gang Zhang, 2022. "Trade Credit and Sectoral Comovement during Recessions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 961, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Mohamed Buheji & Dunya Ahmed, 2020. "Planning for 'The New Normal': Foresight and Management of the Possibilities of Socio-economic Spillovers due to COVID-19 Pandemic," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(1), pages 160-179, June.
    6. Casalis, André & Krustev, Georgi, 2022. "Cyclical drivers of euro area consumption: What can we learn from durable goods?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; aggregate output; factor demand; Intersectoral Linkages; Dynamic Factor Models; Spillovers; Real Business Cycles; Input-output Structure; GR period; hybrid model; transmission mechanism; time series; period of the Great Recession; contribution estimate; recession period; FSW model; sector share distribution; share contribution; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Production growth; Factor models; Vector autoregression; Manufacturing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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