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Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?

Author

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  • Marco Bernardini
  • Lorenzo Forni

Abstract

Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), we study the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times. While previous research has shown that private debt buildups exacerbate the duration and intensity of recessions in advanced economies (AEs), we document that this effect is very pronounced in EMEs as well. Moreover, although rapid public debt buildups are unlikely to be the primary trigger of financial crises, in EMEs they are associated with deeper and longer recessions than in AEs. Part of this difference is explained by a less supportive fiscal policy in EMEs during crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bernardini & Lorenzo Forni, 2017. "Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?," IMF Working Papers 2017/061, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/061
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu, 2024. "Debt shocks and the dynamics of output and inflation in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    4. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho & Tian, Shu, 2023. "Debts and depth of recessions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 468-485.
    5. Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy," IMF Working Papers 2019/170, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2019. "Growth in the shadow of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 98-112.
    7. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public," IMF Working Papers 2018/141, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Menna Bizuneh & Menelik Geremew, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Emerging Market Economies’ (EMEs) Sovereign Bond Risk Premium and Fiscal Solvency," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 519-545, October.

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