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Deuda privada y pública: ¿Están en riesgo los mercados emergentes?

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Bernardini
  • Lorenzo Forni

Abstract

Usamos un conjunto de datos de una amplia muestra amplia de economías de mercados emergentes (EME) para estudiar la relación entre la deuda y del desempeño económico en períodos de recesión. Mientras que investigaciones previas han demostrado que la acumulación de deuda privada agrava la duración e intensidad de las recesiones en las economías avanzadas (EA), nuestro estudio documenta que este efecto es muy pronunciado en las EME también. Además, si bien las rápidas acumulaciones de deuda pública no suelen ser el principal detonante de crisis financieras, en las EME están vinculadas a recesiones más profundas y prolongadas que en la EA. Parte de esta diferencia es atribuible a un menor respaldo mediante políticas fiscales en las EME durante las crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bernardini & Lorenzo Forni, 2017. "Deuda privada y pública: ¿Están en riesgo los mercados emergentes?," IMF Working Papers 2017/061, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/061
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    Cited by:

    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu, 2024. "Debt shocks and the dynamics of output and inflation in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    4. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho & Tian, Shu, 2023. "Debts and depth of recessions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 468-485.
    5. Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy," IMF Working Papers 2019/170, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2019. "Growth in the shadow of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 98-112.
    7. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public," IMF Working Papers 2018/141, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Menna Bizuneh & Menelik Geremew, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Emerging Market Economies’ (EMEs) Sovereign Bond Risk Premium and Fiscal Solvency," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 519-545, October.

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