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Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes and Policy Implications

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Listed:
  • Mr. Emre Alper
  • Mr. Niko A Hobdari
  • Ali Uppal

Abstract

This paper analyzes food inflation trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2016 using two novel datasets of disaggregated CPI baskets. Average food inflation is higher, more volatile, and similarly persistent as non-food non-fuel (NF/NF) inflation, especially in low-income countries (LICs) in SSA. We find evidence that food inflation became less persistent from 2009 onwards, related to recent improvements in monetary policy frameworks. We also find that high food prices are driven mainly by non-tradable food in SSA and there is incomplete pass-through from world food and fuel prices and exchange rates to domestic food prices. Taken together, these finding suggest that central banks in low-income countries with high and persistent food inflation should continue to pay attention to headline inflation to anchor inflation expectations. Other policy levers include reducing tariffs and improving storage and transport infrastructure to reduce food pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Emre Alper & Mr. Niko A Hobdari & Ali Uppal, 2016. "Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 2016/247, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme," Working Papers 19/075, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    3. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/075, African Governance and Development Institute..
    4. Abdul-Aziz Iddrisu & Imhotep Paul Alagidede, 2021. "Asymmetry in food price responses to monetary policy: a quantile regression approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "Analysis of Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme," Working Papers 20/069, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    6. Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Dridi, Jemma & Unsal, Filiz D. & Williams, Oral H., 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 71-84.
    7. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Dridi, Jemma & Nguyen, Anh D. M., 2017. "Inflation Convergence In East African Countries," MPRA Paper 80393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Franses, Philip Hans & Janssens, Eva, 2018. "Inflation in Africa, 1960–2015," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 261-292.

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