IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2016-163.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
  • Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi
  • Claudio Battiati
  • Mrs. Mai Farid

Abstract

What constitutes fiscal space or a prudent level of debt to conduct countercyclical policy while ensuring debt sustainability? This paper addresses the question by exploring the relationship between debt dynamics, and the probabilistic distribution of the primary balance and the effective interest rate. This proposed approach is useful in situations where the lack of relevant data makes it difficult to estimate detailed fiscal reaction functions. Applying this approach to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) and based on various debt ceiling assumptions, we find that about 60 percent of these countries presently have fiscal policy space to address adverse shocks, subject to the availability of domestic and external financing. Countries with strong institutional capacity tend to have more fiscal space, and countries with weak institutional capacity, mostly countries in conflict and fragile states, tend to lack fiscal space.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Claudio Battiati & Mrs. Mai Farid, 2016. "A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/163, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=44171
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, 2014. "Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: An Application to South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2014/231, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Camila Vammalle & Rudiger Ahrend & Claudia Hulbert, 2014. "A Sub-national Perspective on Financing Investment for Growth II - Creating Fiscal Space for Public Investment: The Role of Institutions," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2014/6, OECD Publishing.
    3. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Raphael A Espinoza, 2015. "When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/10, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Fabrice Collard & Michel Habib & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Sustainability In Advanced Economies," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 381-420, June.
    5. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 2013/089, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Dabla-Norris, Era & Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2014. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-378.
    7. Novignon, Jacob & Nonvignon, Justice, 2015. "Fiscal space for health in Sub-Saharan African countries: an efficiency approach," MPRA Paper 63015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mr. Peter S. Heller, 2005. "Understanding Fiscal Space," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/004, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Claudia Hulbert & Camila Vammalle, 2014. "A Sub-national Perspective on Financing Investment for Growth I - Measuring Fiscal Space for Public Investment: Influences, Evolution and Perspectives," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2014/2, OECD Publishing.
    10. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, 2015. "When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2015/010, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ioana-Laura Țibulcă, 2021. "Debt Sustainability: Can EU Member States Use Environmental Taxes to Regain Fiscal Space?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Sameera Awawda & Mohammad Abu-Zaineh & Bruno Ventelou, 2019. "Who Bears the Burden of Universal Health Coverage? An Assessment of Alternative Financing Policies Using an Overlapping generations General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 1335, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    3. Gnangnon Sena Kimm, 2018. "Export Product Concentration and De Facto Fiscal Space: Does Openness to International Trade matter?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, March.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon & Jean-François Brun, 2020. "Tax reform and fiscal space in developing countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 237-265, June.
    5. Ms. Anja Baum & Andrew Hodge & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/110, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fatih AKBAYIR & Ahmet Burçin YERELİ, 2018. "Fiscal Space and Estimating Methods," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(38).
    7. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "De Facto Fiscal Space in Donor-countries and Their Aid Supply: To What Extent is Trade-related Aid Supply Affected?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "De Facto Fiscal Space in Donor-countries and Their Aid Supply: To What Extent is Trade-related Aid Supply Affected?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, June.
    2. Gnangnon Sena Kimm, 2018. "Export Product Concentration and De Facto Fiscal Space: Does Openness to International Trade matter?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Luca Metelli & Kevin Pallara, 2020. "Fiscal space and the size of the fiscal multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1293, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Robertson, D. & Tambakis, D., 2016. "Long-Run Debt Ratios with Fiscal Fatigue," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1674, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Canofari, Paolo & Piergallini, Alessandro & Piersanti, Giovanni, 2020. "The Fallacy Of Fiscal Discipline," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 55-68, January.
    6. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    7. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Roberto Ganau, 2022. "Institutions and the productivity challenge for European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-25.
    9. Shaun de Jager & Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov & Xolani Sibande, 2022. "Leaningagainstthewindwithfiscalandmonetarypolicy," Working Papers 11033, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Baum, Anja & Eyraud, Luc & Hodge, Andrew & Jarmuzek, Mariusz & Kim, Young & Mbaye, Samba & Ture, Elif, 2018. "How to calibrate fiscal rules : a primer," MPRA Paper 86423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    12. Agnieszka Kozera, 2021. "Investment Activity of Large Cities - Regional Centres in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 220-247.
    13. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon & Jean-François Brun, 2020. "Tax reform and fiscal space in developing countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 237-265, June.
    15. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2022. "Fiscal implications of interest rate normalization in the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 868-904, May.
    16. Dammann, Felix & Rodosthenous, Néofytos & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2023. "Debt management game and debt ceiling," TSE Working Papers 23-1430, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Ignat Ignatov, 2021. "Unravelling the EU Debt Knot Over 2000-2019: An Injection-Leakage Approach," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 49-71.
    18. Betty C. Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2022. "Identifying countries at risk of fiscal crises: High‐debt developed countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 828-867, May.
    19. Erdem Kılıç & Sıtkı Sönmezer & Orhan Özaydın, 2022. "Effects of Fiscal Rules and Political Framework: Evidence from COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 7(4), pages 869-888.
    20. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.