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Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

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  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro

Abstract

In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is no systematic study on the effects on all Latin American countries. We present the results from applying a multi-sector model with perfect competition presented by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The exercise, based on input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors, shows that (i) Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit most from the agreement, (ii) negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries appear to be of a different order of magnitude than the gains of members, and (iii) some non-TPP LAC countries may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP. As a cautionary note, however, we point out that even a cursory cross-study comparison shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential effects of the TPP for both members and non-members.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2016. "Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)," IMF Working Papers 2016/101, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia, Jose & Perez-Restrepo, Camilo & Uribe Jaramillo, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Understanding the relationship between Pacific Alliance and the mega-regional agreements in Asia-Pacific: what we learned from the GTAP simulation," Conference papers 332916, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Hector Perez-Saiz & Mr. Jemma Dridi & Tunc Gursoy & Mounir Bari, 2019. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2019/175, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Montalbano, Pierluigi & Nenci, Silvia, 2022. "Does global value chain participation and positioning in the agriculture and food sectors affect economic performance? A global assessment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Brazil: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/216, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ferrantino,Michael Joseph & Maliszewska,Maryla & Taran,Svitlana, 2020. "Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific : Estimated Effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9496, The World Bank.
    6. Fukui, Seiichi, 2019. "Economic Development in Developing Countries and the Future of Trade Agreements," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 21.
    7. Michael J. Ferrantino & Maryla Maliszewska & Svitlana Taran, 2019. "Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific," World Bank Publications - Reports 33549, The World Bank Group.

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