IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2016-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro

Abstract

In February 2016, twelve Pacific Rim countries signed the agreement on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), one of the largest and most comprehensive trade deals in history. While there are several estimates of the likely effects of the TPP, there is no systematic study on the effects on all Latin American countries. We present the results from applying a multi-sector model with perfect competition presented by Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014). The exercise, based on input-output data for 189 countries and 26 sectors, shows that (i) Asian TPP members are estimated to benefit most from the agreement, (ii) negative spillovers to non-TPP LAC countries appear to be of a different order of magnitude than the gains of members, and (iii) some non-TPP LAC countries may experience relatively large benefits from joining the TPP. As a cautionary note, however, we point out that even a cursory cross-study comparison shows that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential effects of the TPP for both members and non-members.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro, 2016. "Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)," IMF Working Papers 2016/101, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43917
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    2. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    3. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    4. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    5. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    6. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    7. Manfred Lenzen & Daniel Moran & Keiichiro Kanemoto & Arne Geschke, 2013. "Building Eora: A Global Multi-Region Input-Output Database At High Country And Sector Resolution," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 20-49, March.
    8. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    9. Fontagné, Lionel & Guillin, Amélie & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2010. "Estimations of Tariff Equivalents for the Services Sectors," Conference papers 331941, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Brazil: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/216, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Garcia, Jose & Perez-Restrepo, Camilo & Uribe Jaramillo, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Understanding the relationship between Pacific Alliance and the mega-regional agreements in Asia-Pacific: what we learned from the GTAP simulation," Conference papers 332916, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Ferrantino,Michael Joseph & Maliszewska,Maryla & Taran,Svitlana, 2020. "Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific : Estimated Effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9496, The World Bank.
    4. Fukui, Seiichi, 2019. "Economic Development in Developing Countries and the Future of Trade Agreements," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 21.
    5. Hector Perez-Saiz & Mr. Jemma Dridi & Tunc Gursoy & Mounir Bari, 2019. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2019/175, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Montalbano, Pierluigi & Nenci, Silvia, 2022. "Does global value chain participation and positioning in the agriculture and food sectors affect economic performance? A global assessment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Michael J. Ferrantino & Maryla Maliszewska & Svitlana Taran, 2019. "Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific," World Bank Publications - Reports 33549, The World Bank Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Lisandro Abrego & Maria Alejandra Amado & Tunc Gursoy & Garth P. Nicholls & Hector Perez-Saiz, 2019. "The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/124, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2017. "Market Structure and the impact of RCEP in The Philippines: What are the Differences between Melitz, Krugman and Armington Models," Conference papers 332835, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Blank, Sven & Egger, Peter H. & Merlo, Valeria & Wamser, Georg, 2022. "A structural quantitative analysis of services trade de-liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Lorenzo Caliendo & Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades," NBER Working Papers 21768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    6. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    8. Rotunno, Lorenzo & Wood, Adrian, 2020. "Wage inequality and skill supplies in a globalised world," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 529-547.
    9. Heiland, Inga & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2022. "Heterogeneous workers, trade, and migration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Lorenzo Rotunno & Adrian Wood, 2015. "Wages and endowments in a globalised world," Economics Papers 2015-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2019. "The Elusive Pro-Competitive Effects of Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(1), pages 46-80.
    12. Timothy Uy, 2015. "Zeros and the Gains from Openness," 2015 Meeting Papers 1158, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Nilsson, Lars, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.
    14. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Holger Breinlich & Alejandro Cuñat, 2016. "Tariffs, Trade and Productivity: A Quantitative Evaluation of Heterogeneous Firm Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(595), pages 1660-1702, September.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Egger, Peter Hannes & Egger, Peter, 2016. "Heterogeneous Effects of Tariff and Nontariff Policy Barriers in General Equilibrium," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145675, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2014. "OECD imports: diversification of suppliers and quality search," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(1), pages 1-24, February.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Yanagida, Kensuke & Vo, Huong, 2018. "The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 4-19.
    22. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates," Working Paper Series WP16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    23. Geoffrey Barrows & Hélène Ollivier & Ariell Reshef, 2023. "Production Function Estimation with Multi-Destination Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 10716, CESifo.
    24. Charlotte Emlinger & Viola Lamani, 2020. "International trade, quality sorting and trade costs: the case of Cognac," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 579-609, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.